Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to present the victory plan to his U.S. counterpart Joe Biden at the White House on Sept. 26, a potentially pivotal moment in the long-running saga of Washington's support for Ukraine.
Zelensky, who is visiting the U.S. this week, has said that the plan is designed to push Russian President Vladimir Putin into a fair peace agreement by boosting Ukraine’s firepower and giving it an upper hand two and a half years into Russia’s full-scale invasion. Zelensky has not publicly specified how it will achieve this.
Here's what we know so far…
The timing
The announcement that Kyiv was preparing a victory plan came as Ukraine gained momentum following its surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast. The ongoing operation, the first significant invasion of Russian territory since World War II, was a significant blow to the Kremlin and Putin.
It exposed Russia’s inability to defend its own territory and challenged Putin’s so-called "red lines" aimed at deterring Ukraine’s Western allies from stepping up weaponry supplies. It also showed Ukraine's backers that Kyiv could still seize the initiative on the battlefield.
As well as riding the momentum of the Kursk operation, events in the U.S. could also be a big factor in Kyiv's push to present the plan — the November U.S. presidential election that might bring former President Donald Trump back to the White House and jeopardize the U.S. support for Ukraine.
The content
The fine details of the plan are yet to be made public. It is expected to address military, political, diplomatic, and economic strategies.
A source close to Zelensky told the Kyiv Independent last week that it aims "to create such conditions and such an atmosphere that Russia will no longer be able to ignore the peace formula and the peace summit."
But some elements have been revealed. The head of the Presidential Office Andriy Yermak earlier this week said that an invitation to join NATO is part of the plan.
According to the information obtained by the Kyiv Independent on Sept. 22, Ukraine would ask for NATO membership within the months, not years.
Speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, Yermak also said that the five-point victory plan includes both diplomatic and military components.
"I also urged our partners to ignore Russia's threats of escalation," he said.
One element certain to be in the plan is the U.S. and other allies' approval for Ukraine to use long-range weapons including Western-provided missiles to target military sites deep inside Russia.
Kyiv has long been pushing for restrictions to be lifted as it would enable Ukraine to destroy the airfields from which Russian aircraft are taking off to attack Ukrainian civilian infrastructure as well as degrade Russian air defenses.
And we also know one thing that won't be in the plan – a partial ceasefire.
After a German media report suggested otherwise, Zelensky personally refuted the claim.
"There is not and cannot be any alternative to peace, no freezing of the war or any other manipulations that will simply move Russian aggression to another stage," Zelensky said in his evening address on Sept. 18.
How has it gone down so far?
The first reports aren't too positive.
The White House is concerned that Zelensky's plan lacks a clear strategy to win against Russia, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Sept. 25, citing U.S. and European officials.
Some officials familiar with the plan's outlines said it focuses too heavily on requesting more weapons and lifting restrictions on long-range missile strikes.
"I'm unimpressed, there's not much new there," one senior official told the WSJ.
White House officials are worried that Zelensky's plan does not offer clear, actionable steps that Biden can support in his four remaining months in office, the WSJ reported.
U.S. and European officials told the WSJ that parts of the plan remain underdeveloped, and that requests related to weapons are the most specific and detailed.
What happens if Biden rejects the plan?
"That's a horrible thought," Zelensky said when asked this question by The New Yorker in an interview, published on Sept. 22.
"It would mean that Biden doesn't want to end the war in any way that denies Russia a victory," he said.
"And we would end up with a very long war—an impossible, exhausting situation that would kill a tremendous number of people. Having said that, I can't blame Biden for anything," Zelensky added.
