For the second night in a row, the Kremlin has reported downing Ukrainian attack drones on their approach to Moscow.
While not an unprecedented event, the timing of these attacks on the Russian capital has not gone unnoticed, coming just days before the much-vaunted Victory Day parade in the center of the city set to take place on May 9.
"I think Ukraine is reminding Russia that it can't act with impunity in Ukraine and not expect any payback," former U.K. Defense Attache in Moscow, John Foreman, told the Kyiv Independent.
"And that stunt three-day ceasefires are worthless," he added.
Russia's Victory Day celebrations on May 9, which mark the Soviet Union's role in defeating Nazi Germany in World War II, are one of the country's biggest public events of the year and a key part of Russian President Vladimir Putin's propaganda efforts to justify aggression against what the Kremlin falsely describes as "Nazis" in Ukraine.
And while almost all Western leaders have shunned the event, the guest list this year includes Chinese President Xi Jinping, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, the Kremlin said on May 6 though Fico's attendance has been in doubt over illness.
With Ukraine having previously demonstrated its ability to strike Moscow with attack drones, Putin has already taken cynical steps to protect the event, unilaterally announcing last month a "humanitarian" truce from May 8 until midnight on May 11.
The move was described as a "theatrical performance" by President Volodymyr Zelensky, and experts who spoke to the Kyiv Independent said Moscow's unilateral declaration is simply not how ceasefires are conducted.
"Ceasefires have to be negotiated so both sides agree on terms otherwise neither is bound by them," retired Australian Army Major-General Mick Ryan told the Kyiv Independent, adding the Kremlin's truce lacked "clear terms" as well as any "monitoring arrangements."
It also followed Russia's now nearly two months-long refusal to accept a U.S.-proposed full, 30-day ceasefire to which Ukraine agreed back on March 11.
"Putin is still treating the Ukrainians as though they will have to accept whatever terms he dictates," Jenny Mathers, a Russian political expert and lecturer at the U.K.'s Aberystwyth University, told the Kyiv Independent.
"Drone attacks on Russia's capital could be intended to remind Putin that he cannot assume he will have everything his own way," she added.
"Kyiv probably hopes to embarrass Putin by creating problems and uncertainty around Russia's ability to pull off its major set piece event of the military parade in Red Square on Victory Day."
While the drone strikes this week caused minimal damage and no reported casualties, they were disruptive — the latest attack overnight on May 6 forced the temporary shutdowns of four airports in Moscow Oblast, including Russia's busiest air hub, Sheremetyevo International Airport.
And with a handful of world leaders set to make their way to Moscow in the coming days, any disruption to the main event itself is something the Kremlin will be hoping to avoid.
Xi is scheduled to fly to Russia on May 7, and an airspace full of drones would cause obvious problems.
"Kyiv probably hopes to embarrass Putin by creating problems and uncertainty around Russia's ability to pull off its major set piece event of the military parade in Red Square on Victory Day," Mathers said.
Ukraine has not commented on the drone attacks this week, but speaking to the Washington Post on May 6, an anonymous defense official dismissed the idea of Ukrainian drones attacking the parade as "hype."
Moscow is not taking any chances — the city has already been plagued with mobile network outages during rehearsals for the parade, and Russia's Ministry of Emergency Situations has said mobile internet access may be restricted on May 9, as attack drones rely heavily on them for navigation.
And while Ukrainian officials have dismissed the idea of attacking the main parade itself, there are still two full days before it takes place.
On the evening of May 6, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin claimed Russian air defenses had downed three Ukrainian drones on the approach to the capital, potentially marking a third day straight of such attacks.
Alex Cadier
