U.S. President Donald Trump's stated goal of bringing a swift end to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine is looking evermore distant, with only two tentative partial ceasefires to show after several rounds of talks.
Ukraine has already agreed to a U.S.-proposed full 30-day ceasefire, saying on March 11 that Kyiv is ready to take such a step if Russia adheres to the terms as well.
So far, Russia has refused, instead agreeing only to an apparent pause in strikes on energy infrastructure and to "eliminate the use of force" in the Black Sea.
Yet despite the willingness shown by Ukraine, and the — in Trump's own words — "dragging on feet" by the Kremlin, the White House has only applied real pressure on Kyiv, using military aid and intelligence sharing as sticks to force it to comply.
While Trump has threatened more sanctions against Russia, he has yet to follow through. Instead, on March 26, he said the U.S. is "looking at" the possibility of lifting some sanctions on Russia to secure the Black Sea ceasefire.
The Kyiv Independent sat down with Marty Latz, an expert negotiator who has spent decades examining the techniques Trump has used to make deals, and the author of 'The Real Trump Deal: An Eye-Opening Look at How He Really Negotiates.'
This interview has been edited for clarity.
The Kyiv Independent: What are the golden rules of negotiating?
Marty Latz: There are five golden rules to negotiating. The first — information is power, so get it.
You need to set your goals, you need to figure out what you want to accomplish, and you need to step into the other side's shoes. What do they want to accomplish? What are their interests?
And the idea in a negotiation, of course, is to find the sweet spot and the mutual interests where those goals overlap.
The second golden rule of negotiation — maximize your leverage.
There are two elements of leverage. First is how much do you need a deal relative to how much the other side needs a deal? The more desperate you are, the weaker your leverage. The more desperate they are, the stronger your leverage.
And the second element is — what are you going to do if you don't do a deal with the other side? What is your plan B?
Plan A is any kind of a deal, or maybe many different variations of a deal, A1, A2, A3. Plan B is — what are you going to do if you don't do a deal?
The third golden rule of negotiation is — employ fair objective criteria.
How do you evaluate in any negotiation what's fair or reasonable or unfair or unreasonable? What kind of norms or standards or benchmarks might exist?
Is there some precedent for this particular deal? And one element in the war between Russia and Ukraine right now is there is a lot of precedent. The precedent is that Russia has violated multiple ceasefires.
So that makes Ukraine very reluctant to do another deal without some additional leverage or security guarantees to ensure that Russia is going to follow through on its commitments.
The fourth golden rule — design and offer concession strategy. When do you make your moves?
How far do you move each time? Should you make a first move or not? These are very strategic and tactical decisions that need to be made in almost every negotiation.
And then the fifth golden rule — control the agenda. When do you meet? How do you meet?
Do you meet on a neutral site? Who actually is going to be sitting at the table?
The Kyiv Independent: So far the peace talks have gone more in Russia's favor than Ukraine's — do you think this will continue?
Marty Latz: I think the path has been largely set at least for the next couple weeks, if not for the next couple of months, and it goes back to the parties' goals and their leverage.
President (Vladimir) Putin and Russia's goals have always been to increase their sphere of influence, to be viewed as a world superpower, and to, in effect, reintegrate Ukraine into Russia as a world power. So that is his goal.
He's been very clear about that goal for years, literally. And his alternative to doing a deal right now — (continuing) armed conflict — is actually helping him accomplish that goal.
So as long as he is enjoying what he perceives to be military success on the ground, we're not going to have any significant progress toward a cessation of hostilities and peace — his plan B is better than his plan A.
Chris York
The Kyiv Independent: Is there any way that the White House or even Ukraine could change that calculus?
Marty Latz: That calculus absolutely can be changed, but it would require a substantial increase in military and economic support from the United States to Ukraine, because you've got to change the facts on the ground.
You've got to stop Russia, and you've got to get Russia to understand that pursuing a military solution is worse for Russia than any type of peace deal.
But so far, we haven't seen the political will in the United States for that from the Republican Party and from the president.
And so unless and until President (Donald) Trump utilizes some of his leverage with Russia, economic leverage on the sanctions front, and does that in a very aggressive way, I don't see there being any long term cessation of hostilities or peace deal.
The Kyiv Independent: Is Trump, who obviously has grown up and worked in more of a business environment for most of his life, trying to impose the etiquette of business negotiations into the diplomatic world?
Marty Latz: I think that that's a very insightful point. Keep in mind that Donald Trump has been negotiating largely in the same way with similar tactics, similar strategies for 50-plus years. Despite the fact that he was president for four years, he still uses the same tactics and strategies that he used in business.
In some contexts, they worked in business. In some contexts, they miserably failed. It's not so simple as to say he's just trying to use business strategies in a political environment, and he is, but that he has failed to learn, in effect, how to negotiate differently in an environment where there are multiple parties, multiple interests, and very complex diplomatic engagement.
His real sweet spot in negotiations, to the extent that it worked in the past, were one-shot deals where there were one or two issues on the table, and he didn't have a future relationship. It's a whole different environment in which he's negotiating now.
" I don't really believe that President Trump wants anything other than a deal."
He does understand leverage, which has an outsized impact in both negotiations, but he didn't really effectively negotiate for four years as president in his first term.
I would suggest that he has started out his second term, again, using the same tactics. He's using the same tactics that miserably failed in his first term, and now they're having the same impact at the beginning of his second term.
The Kyiv Independent: What is Trump actually negotiating for?
Marty Latz: From President Trump's perspective, as it relates to the Ukraine-Russia war situation, he just wants a deal. I don't really believe that President Trump wants anything other than a deal.
I don't think he cares so much about the details of the deal as long as he will get the international credit for bringing the parties together and stopping the hostilities.
So that's one thing to really understand about President Trump and what he's trying to accomplish. It's not about stopping President Putin in terms of his territorial ambitions and his aggression, it's just about getting a deal.
The Kyiv Independent: Why is Trump only using leverage over Ukraine and not Russia?
Marty Latz: Trump looks at the world in black and white. There's not a lot of gray in between. And he looks at President Putin as a friend.
Why does he look at President Putin and Russia as a friend? I personally think it goes back to 2015, 2016, when an independent, bipartisan investigation by the U.S. Congress found that Russia actually helped Trump get elected president.
And so Trump views Putin as, in effect, as someone who is aligned with his personal interests — not the U.S.'s maybe strategic interests — but President Trump's personal interests.
And that's why, even though Trump does have and the U.S. has significant leverage over Russia with regard to economic leverage, with regard to the severity and scope of the sanctions, he, at least at this point, does not appear willing to utilize that leverage to try to get Putin to make concessions.
Martin Fornusek
