Editor's note: The interview has been edited for clarity.
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya is stuck between a rock and a hard place.
Despite receiving popular support during the 2020 elections, the Belarusian opposition leader was kicked out of her country, her supporters were jailed en masse, while the country she wanted to lead is now entangled in Russia’s war against Ukraine on Moscow's side.
What’s more, Tsikhanouskaya's husband, Siarhei, arrested months before the elections in which he wanted to challenge Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko, remains behind bars to this day.
And despite Tsikhanouskaya's vast effort to lead her country’s opposition and gain the support of the international community, her team has little to no sway over her country’s policy, where dictator Lukashenko continues to call the shots.
Ukrainian top officials have also largely ignored Tsikhanouskaya, balancing their act between the opposition and the current regime.
Yet, Tsikhanouskaya doesn’t give up.
Tsikhanouskaya says the fates of Belarus and Ukraine are interlinked as both countries suffer under the Russian heel.
“We can support the Ukrainian army, and our Belarusian volunteers are fighting shoulder-to-shoulder with Ukrainians,” Tsikhanouskaya told the Kyiv Independent.
“The fate of Belarus and Ukraine are interconnected, and we can't solve one issue without another,” she added.
The Kyiv Independent met the Belarusian opposition leader during the Warsaw Security Forum on Oct. 2 to discuss her country's path to democracy, why a free Belarus must be part of the resolution of the war in Ukraine, and discussed how to bring attention to the crimes of Lukashenko's regime.
Andreas Umland
The Kyiv Independent: Earlier this year, Belarus moved significant forces to the Ukrainian border. More recently, Alexander Lukashenko said that an attack on Belarus would mean World War III. Do you see this as empty saber-rattling, or are there more tangible threats behind it?
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya: I'm absolutely sure that Belarusian soldiers would never join the Russian army and would never attack Ukraine. And Lukashenko knows this.
What he's doing is conducting drills or concentrating troops that are very loyal to him to sell some messages. He and the Belarusian people know that nobody's going to invade us or provoke us. But he's using this rhetoric to blackmail, to divert attention.
When the Ukrainian army succeeded in the Kursk direction, Lukashenko was blamed by Russia because he dragged troops away from the border. And he immediately, to show loyalty to (Russian President Vladimir) Putin again, started these drills. So it's a provocation, nothing else.
Of course, we have to watch closely what Lukashenko is doing because when it's necessary for Putin, he'll provide our (Belarusian) territories and facilities again (to Russia).
But I don't believe that Belarusian soldiers would fight Ukrainians.
The Kyiv Independent: What's your position on Lithuania's request to the International Criminal Court to investigate Lukashenko, and what goals do you think this can achieve?
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya: For three years in a row already, we have been collecting evidence of Lukashenko's crimes.
This feeling of impunity emboldens dictators. They think that they can unleash repression, torture people, and make people leave the country through intimidation.
This referral is extremely important, first of all, as a message that all the perpetrators will be brought to accountability. But also – maybe not immediately, but in the future – it will have practical results. If an arrest warrant is issued against Lukashenko, he will become an intentional criminal. He will become a pariah.
He's already a pariah to the democratic world, but legal justice should prevail.
The Kyiv Independent: Over the past three months, the Belarusian regime has pardoned over 100 people who were imprisoned for taking part in the protests. Of course, many more remain jailed. What do you think was the motivation behind this wave of pardons?
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya: During the same period, more than 100 people were detained. So, we can't consider this release a change in Lukashenko's policy. He continues to repress people.
I think it was a gesture for the Belarusian people and the world to improve his image. He again wants to play with these narratives, to say, "Look, it's an act of humanity." I wouldn't suspect Lukashenko of humanity.
He again wants to play this game before the so-called elections. I hope and actually believe that the democratic world will not change its policy regarding Lukashenko's regime because he has done it many times before. And this time, we have to do our job until our victory.
The Kyiv Independent: There have been many discussions here at the Warsaw Security Forum about how to help Ukraine achieve victory and how to achieve just and lasting peace. Can the Belarusian opposition play a role in these efforts?
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya: I think that Belarus is part of the problem, but it might also be part of the solution. We are trying to get Belarus out of this war by dismantling Lukashenko's regime because independent and free democratic Belarus might help Ukrainians win this war.
Of course, it also might be vice versa, that Ukrainian victory can help Belarus use this window of opportunity and dismantle the regime.
"I think that Belarus is part of the problem, but it might also be part of the solution."
Exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya speaks during the Warsaw Security Forum 2024 in Warsaw, Poland on Oct. 2, 2024. (Aleksander Kalka/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
We can't give Ukrainians any assistance. We can't give military equipment or millions of dollars. But we can advocate for Ukraine at the international arena and explain why it's absolutely vital and necessary to give Ukrainians everything they need to win this war.
We can support the Ukrainian army, and our Belarusian volunteers are fighting shoulder-to-shoulder with Ukrainians.
And also explain how the fate of Belarus and Ukraine are interconnected and that we can't solve one issue without another because Russia doesn't see Belarus or Ukraine as independent states. They see us as their colonies.
The Kyiv Independent: Facing growing repressions, facing the presence of Russian troops and even nuclear weapons in Belarus, what do you see as the most realistic path towards democracy, towards independence from Russia?
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya: During the 30 years of Lukashenko's rule, he made our country, to a huge extent, dependent on Russia. And he's dragging our country into more and more dependence. We see how Russia interferes in our economy, our education, in our media.
It's like a creeping occupation of our country. In the future, we will have to cut this dependence, and we're already working on reforms and diversification of the oil and gas supply. But now we have to weaken Lukashenko’s regime as much as possible and strengthen the Belarusian people.
This is our strategy at the moment. And also, during negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, the Belarus issue should also be included. We have to demand a withdrawal of Russian troops, not only from Ukraine but also from Belarus.
And the point about democratization should be in this (potential) document. Because if not, Lukashenko will sell our country piece by piece to Russia, and we'll lose our independence.
The Kyiv Independent: Are you worried that if Belarus achieves independence, achieves democracy, Russia may simply invade and try to force Belarus to fall in line like it attempted to do when it invaded Ukraine in 2022?
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya: The democratic world has to say clearly that you can't influence domestic policies of different countries. If we think about this in such a way, we have to be always worried that Russia would invade any country. It's a wrong perception.
We have to stop thinking that Russia is almighty and that everything in our region depends on Putin.
Lukashenko always said, “I'm providing peace in Belarus, vote for me,” but this is a person who already brought war to my country, who made Belarus a co-aggressor, who made Belarus a pariah in the world. Russia is already conducting an occupation but under Lukashenko's leadership.
Introducing official
merch from the Kyiv Independent
