'Tantamount to defeat' — even Russian propagandists don't think the war in Ukraine is going well

After months of disagreement over peace talks, the White House and several Kremlin propagandists are finally in unison about something — Russia's war in Ukraine is not going well for Moscow.

"Russians have got to wake up and accept reality. A lot of people are dying and they don’t have a lot to show for it," U.S. Vice President JD Vance said on Sept. 28.

His comments came just a few days after U.S. President Donald Trump said Russia "spent millions and millions of dollars on bombs, missiles, ammunition, and lives, their lives, and they've gained virtually no land."

But these sentiments aren't just confined to the West — in recent days, several pro-Kremlin figures have acknowledged that Russia’s military campaign is faltering, echoing Western concerns about mounting losses and lack of progress.

Ukrainian mapping and monitoring group Deep State put the total figure for new territory occupied over June, July, and August at 1,548 square kilometers, losing 94,810 personnel over the same three months, or an average of 1,030 per day.

While more territory than it occupied in the equivalent period in 2024, it still only amounts to 0.003% of total Ukraine's total territory.

Russian propagandist Tatyana Montyan admitted that manpower is lacking for offensive operations, warning that President Vladimir Putin may be forced to announce a new wave of mobilization "if there’s no major breakthrough in this spring-autumn campaign."

"In the first half of September, the pace of the offensive slowed significantly. They may have committed their last reserves," she said in a recent interview on Sept. 22.

Dmitry Rogozin, a Russian senator representing the occupied Zaporizhzhia region, went further, acknowledging on Sept. 21 that the front line had reached a "deadlock" and that Moscow was incapable of achieving significant advances.

"It's impossible to advance. There's a deadlock at the front," he said.

Pavel Gubarev, former Russian proxy in Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast and veteran of the war, commented on Rogozin's statement. He noted that Russian forces are often on the offensive while Ukraine defends, leading to "incomparably heavy losses."

He added that the destruction of Russian oil refining capacity by Ukrainian strikes has created a strategically advantageous situation for Kyiv, while state propaganda misleads the public into believing that Ukraine is on the verge of collapse.

"In reality, the current situation is already tantamount to defeat for us. Russia does not have the capability to complete the special military operation with the achievement of set goals and victory under the colonial system of the current government," Gubarev wrote.

On September 19, on Russia’s state-controlled channel NTV during the live political talk show "Mesto Vstrechi" (Meeting place) one guest openly questioned the official figures on Ukrainian losses. He argued that the numbers cited by the Russian side were simply impossible:

"With the outbreak of hostilities, the Ukrainian army went up to 800,000 people. Then, along the way, it increased by somewhere near 100,000–120,000 per year. Thus, there can be no 1,700,000–2,000,000 losses because, in that case, the Ukrainian army simply would not exist," he said.

"So you mean the Russian Ministry of Defense is lying?" The host asked him.

"Not only ours," he replied, adding that "it is a huge mistake to underestimate the Ukrainian army."

Military expert and former Security Service of Ukraine officer Ivan Stupak says that if Russian propagandists' words truly matter, they will be reflected in how the authorities respond to them.

"Propagandists speak as long as they are allowed to. If they tell the truth and it causes harm, we will see it in the Russian authorities actions toward them," he told the Kyiv Independent.

He added that such statements suggest Russians themselves are growing tired and are not ready to fight endlessly, contrary to what the Kremlin claims.

Slump in Russian dividends adds pressure to war-stretched public finances

Russian companies are slashing dividend payments as lower oil prices and a stronger ruble weigh on profits, complicating the government’s efforts to finance higher spending on the country’s decade-long war against Ukraine. Interim dividends declared by Russian firms — many of which the state partly owns — for the first half of 2025 almost halved versus last year to 341.8 billion rubles ($4.09 billion), according to calculations by Russian business daily Kommersant, after lower commodity prices

The Kyiv IndependentToby Woodall