(Updated: )
A senior Russian official on June 19 inadvertently confirmed the staggering troop losses incurred by Moscow's forces during its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
In an interview with CNN, Russian Ambassador to the U.K. Andrey Kelin was asked about Moscow's maximalist intentions in Ukraine and its ability to recruit enough soldiers to fulfill them.
Despite ongoing U.S.-led peace efforts, Russia continues to demand Ukraine withdraws from the four partially occupied regions — Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia — as a precondition for negotiations.
Meanwhile, according to figures from Kyiv, Russia has suffered more than 1 million dead, wounded, and missing soldiers since the start of its full-scale invasion.
Kelin dismissed the 1 million casualties figure but did confirm that "about 600,000" Russian soldiers were fighting in Ukraine, a number which tallies with Ukrainian estimates from January.
The number is actually lower than the 700,000 (Russian President Vladimir) Putin claimed in June 2024, and the 617,000 he claimed in December 2023.
Kelin was then asked about Russian army recruitment.
"I'm not a specialist in this area, but as I understand it we have 50-60,000 a month, those volunteers who are coming, recruiting, posting, and they would like to get engaged in this thing (in Ukraine)," he replied.
He did not explain why the size of the Russian army fighting in Ukraine has gone down despite what would amount to around 250,000 extra troops being recruited and sent to the front since the beginning of the year.
According to figures from Ukraine's General Staff, Russia has lost 217,440 troops since Jan. 1, 2025.
The discrepancy tallies with Western analysis of Russia's staggering losses.
"They lose somewhere in the ballpark of 35,000 to 45,000 people per month, and perhaps they recruit a little bit north of that number," George Barros, Russia team lead at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), told the Kyiv Independent earlier this month.
Given that Russia is having to pay people to sign up, the losses have potentially huge ramifications for the country's economy.
According to an analysis by economist Janis Kluge, Russia's daily bill just for sign-up bonuses is $24 million.
The ballooning bills come at a time when Russia's economy is already under huge strain from Western sanctions and falling oil and gas revenues.
"The implications for Russia are grave," energy security analyst Wojciech Jakobik wrote in an op-ed for the Kyiv Independent this week.
According to Barros, making any predictions about whether or not the Russian economy is going to collapse is "supremely difficult to do," but the signs for the Kremlin "don't bode well."
"If you look at the current Russian economic indicators, for example their inflation rate, their overnight lending interest rates, Russian monetary constraints… government spending is out of control — it's a very loose fiscal policy and so the economy is at risk of overheating," he said.
"I don't know to what extent the economy can continue to last."
Kelin also said Ukraine must accept Moscow's terms for ending the war or face further military advances and eventual "surrender" — you can read the full story here.
Hi, this is Chris. Thank you for reading this article. The Kyiv Independent doesn't have a wealthy owner or a paywall. Instead, we rely on readers like you to keep our journalism funded. If you liked this article, consider joining our community today.
Chris York
