Analysis: Russian disinformation sets the stage for Transnistria provocations ahead of Moldova's elections

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Russia and its proxies have launched a disinformation campaign claiming that Moldova, together with Romania and Ukraine, plans a military operation against Transnistria, a Kremlin-occupied region in the country's east.

The new wave of Kremlin-backed propaganda is circulating widely on social media just days before Moldova's parliamentary elections set for Sept. 28.

The vote will determine the country's trajectory, either continuing Moldova's path toward EU integration or drifting it back into Russia's sphere of influence.

Pro-Russian media campaigns have surged in Moldova, targeting local audiences. Citing the low credibility of "foreign" sources of information, they push false claims of secret agreements between Moldova, Ukraine, and NATO for an armed conflict on Kyiv's southwestern border.

The messages that "Europe is preparing to occupy Moldova" are "classic scare tactics," Roman Osadchuk, director of Threat Intelligence at the LetsData tech company monitoring disinformation, told the Kyiv Independent.

'NATO troops' in Odesa Oblast

A narrative that Romania plans to send troops into neighboring Moldova to attack Transnistria, a region occupied by Moscow in the early 1990s under the pretext of protecting the Russian population, isn't new.

About 1,500 Russian troops remain in the occupied region today as part of a Kremlin-called "peacekeeping" contingent, which Moldova and neighboring Ukraine see as an illegal occupying force.

The narrative suggests that the operation to take back Transnistria is driven by fears of post-election unrest and somehow coordinated with Moldova's pro-EU President Maia Sandu.

Pro-Kremlin channels claim that Romania is already concentrating troops near the Moldovan border.

LetsData, which monitors Moldova's information landscape in cooperation with International Media Support (IMS), first identified the narrative on Sept. 19. It was repeatedly republished by notorious pro-Russian Telegram channels, which cited an article in Polish published by the outlet Myśl Polska.

Myśl Polska is well known for amplifying Kremlin propaganda in Poland, and its articles are frequently cited by major Russian state-controlled media, including TASS, RIA Novosti, and Gazeta.ru.

The article's author, listed as Marcin Merski, cites "his own sources," but no information about him exists online to indicate relevant expertise. A person by this name has published only two articles, both focused on Moldovan elections.

The Myśl Polska piece itself references a single additional source, Dimineata.info, which also promotes pro-Kremlin narratives and does not disclose any authorship.

The disinformation campaign was further amplified on Sept. 23 by Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR).

In its statement, the spy agency recycled the claim of a Romanian attack on Transnistria and added a new twist — NATO is supposedly preparing to deploy troops in Ukraine's Odesa Oblast as an intimidation tactic.

This claim mirrors Moscow's past false claims about the supposed presence of NATO troops in Ukraine and the alliance's direct involvement in Russia's war against Ukraine on Kyiv's side.

The SVR says the motive is fear of post-election unrest if Sandu's ruling Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) secures a parliamentary majority, allegedly as a result of EU-orchestrated "falsifications," a narrative Russia uses to undermine the elections.

In contrast to the claim, Sandu's democratic victory in last year's presidential elections caused no unrest in Transnistria.

Osadchuk notes that the amplification of this narrative by a Russian government source "adds weight to the rumors and lends credibility to — or launders — the narrative for a broader audience."

The dissemination of the SVR's message, along with the Romanian intervention narrative, is growing rapidly in Moldova's online space, according to the LetsData team. Both circulate widely on the Telegram messenger app through multiple pro-Kremlin and local channels.

The SVR message alone garnered 71,583 views and 1,712 shares within just 45 minutes. Analysts say the goal is to create a breakout perception and dominate feeds before any countermessaging can take hold.

UK, France cast as orchestrators in propaganda spin

In a related narrative, Moscow-controlled media allege that British and French intelligence services are orchestrating future provocations in Transnistria.

In addition to the Polish so-called "sources" mentioned above, Russia amplifies the message through self-styled "independent" Ukrainian voices, who are far from representative of Ukrainian society and are widely known as pro-Russian fringe actors.

One of them is Diana Panchenko, a Kremlin-aligned propagandist who fled Ukraine after the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022. Before that, she was a prominent host on a pro-Russian TV channel owned by Viktor Medvedchuk, a Ukrainian oligarch and a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

On Sept. 11, Panchenko published a video on X addressed to U.S. President Donald Trump, using the platform to advance Kremlin talking points while inserting herself into American politics.

Speaking in Russian with an English voiceover, she spread a conspiracy that President Volodymyr Zelensky and French President Emmanuel Macron plan to use the Ukrainian army to attack Transnistria.

"According to this plan, some kind of provocation toward Ukraine will take place after the elections in Moldova. That will make Zelensky declare a counter-terrorist operation," she said.

Panchenko alleged the existence of an "anti-Trump plan," supposedly intended both to block closer U.S.-Russia ties and to influence the 2026 U.S. midterm elections.

In her spin, this scheme would give Zelensky, Macron, and the Moldovan authorities a pretext to demand more funds from Washington.

As for her sources, Panchenko claims her information comes from anonymous "people from Zelensky's team."

Pachenko's allegations also included claims that U.K. intelligence agencies were involved in the plan, a narrative also pushed by Russian propaganda networks.

Many outlets cited an article from the "British press," but the link leads to a dubious website, mynews24.co.uk, which references the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).

RUSI, a U.K.-based defense think tank recently labeled "undesirable" in Russia, never released any such claim.

Undermining democracy with fear tactics

Similar tactics — invoking alleged Western meddling and the risk of direct confrontation with Moscow — have long been used to stoke fear in Ukraine and other countries in Russia's neighborhood, such as Georgia.

In Ukraine, such narratives appeared both before and after the full-scale invasion, for example, framed around supposed "red lines" on allied weapons deliveries, Osadchuk notes.

In Moldova, he adds, it "is aimed at voters to potentially decrease turnout, delegitimize the election process, undermine trust in state institutions, and create an information environment for possible calls not to recognize election results or to incite unrest."

The rapid spread of these narratives suggests coordination, with older narratives resurfacing and new ones added to amplify the threat of potential military intervention.

In a recent speech, Sandu warned of Kremlin interference in the elections and efforts to obstruct Moldova's EU ambitions.

Sandu claimed the Kremlin is spending "hundreds of millions of euros to buy hundreds of thousands of votes" in Moldova and abroad while spreading "dozens of lies every day."

Investigations by Bloomberg and the BBC also revealed an alleged Russian plot to influence the elections, including a network paying individuals to spread pro-Russian propaganda and fake news to discredit Sandu's party.

"Today, with all seriousness, I tell you that our sovereignty, independence, integrity, and European future are in danger," Moldova's president said on Sept. 22, a week before the crucial vote.