Chart of the week: Russia lost more territory than it gained for the first time since 2023
Russia lost more territory than it gained in February for the first time since Ukraine's failed counteroffensive in 2023, according to independent Finnish open-source intelligence collective Black Bird Group.
Russia lost 37 km² on balance last month, causing the total area of Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia to modestly drop to 118,917 km², according to the group’s analysis.
The independent assessment comes after Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi also claimed on March 2 that Ukraine captured more territory than Russia occupied in February.
The slow-down in Russian advances over winter mirrors the dynamic a year prior, when Ukrainian forces stabilized their lines at a crucial time: the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump.
On today’s drone-saturated battlefield, Russia has been forced to attack almost entirely with small infantry groups, doing their best to infiltrate past Ukrainian forward positions and dig in.
This becomes much harder in the depths of winter, as soldiers are exposed not only to the freezing cold, but also to the watchful eyes of Ukrainian drone operators, without any foliage to take cover in while moving through treelines.
Meanwhile, the reported Ukrainian gains are mainly due to counterattacks along the southern front, according to Black Bird Group, where Ukraine succeeded in pushing Russia out of 213 km² of territory.
While Kyiv has been attacking on a noticeable scale, accurately measuring control, loss, and gain of territory objectively is becoming more difficult.
Operating in a wide contested "grey zone" with infiltrations on both sides, the Ukrainian advances trackable in open sources are mostly extended clearing operations, rather than capturing and taking of Russian-held lines of defense.
These counterattacks, led by Ukraine’s assault regiments and Air Assault Forces, are doing important work to straighten out and stabilize the southern front line ahead of what is likely to be a ferocious Russian offensive campaign over spring and summer.
Still, this is not equivalent to the maneuver breakthrough counteroffensives of 2022, and what’s important is not the measured size of liberated territory, but how the battlefield is shaped for what is looking to be an intense year of fighting.
