Chart of the week: Lending boom suggests war is new normal for Ukrainians
Lending in Ukraine is booming. (Nizar al-Rifai/Luca Léry Moffat/The Kyiv Independent)
Ukrainians continued a borrowing spree in 2025, suggesting that households and companies are settling into a new normal as the country approaches the fifth year of Russia's full-scale invasion.
While new loans plummeted in the first few years of the full-scale invasion, borrowing started to pick up in 2024. By last year, the total value of loans taken out by Ukrainian households and companies was 50% and 27% higher than in 2023, respectively, according to data from Ukrainian think tank Center for Economic Strategy (CES) and the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
"Borrowing is up for the corporate sector, for small and medium enterprises, for big enterprises, for households — it is booming everywhere," Lazar Levchenko, an economist at CES, told the Kyiv Independent.
In November 2025, the total value of outstanding loans to households and companies hit Hr 334.5 billion ($7.9 billion) and Hr 706.9 billion ($16.6 billion), respectively, according to CES and NBU data.
"Businesses are ready to take loans, and banks are ready to give them," Serhii Fursa, deputy head of Ukrainian investment firm Dragon Capital, told the Kyiv Independent.
Optimism among banks, corporate borrowing for capital investment, and energy-related investments following recent attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure are key drivers of the lending, according to Levchenko.
Another cause for optimism is that most of the new borrowing is happening in hryvnia, Ukraine's own currency.
The total value of outstanding loans denominated in foreign currency (FX) held by companies was up by just 8% in 2025, and down by 20% for households compared with 2023.
Historically, Ukrainians have leaned towards holding dollars and euros due to a lack of trust in their local currency.
"The only variable that shows weak growth is loans in foreign currency, which is a good phenomenon," Levchenko said.
"In terms of both credit and bank deposits, the share in foreign currency is at or close to record lows," he added.
Ukraine's banking system has a turbulent history. Roughly half of the country's banks were liquidated following reforms in the banking sector starting in 2015.
Those reforms were broadly successful, and the banking sector is well-trusted today.
