Can Trump offer Ukraine's minerals to Putin? Not without unraveling the global legal order, experts warn
President Donald Trump is reportedly considering offering Moscow access to Ukraine’s natural minerals in the Russian-occupied territories, a move Ukrainians say would be illegal and damaging to Washington’s reputation.
The news comes as Trump is set to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Aug. 15 the war in Ukraine, without inviting Kyiv. According to the Telegraph, Trump’s team is putting together proposals to incentivize Putin to reach a peace deal that include exploiting Ukrainian minerals, sanctions relief, and access to resources in Alaska, rich in oil and gas.
The suggestion that Trump could greenlight Russia’s exploitation of its resources in its mineral-dense regions has both baffled and alarmed industry experts in Ukraine.
"It will mean that international law does not exist anymore and global international relations will transform not even to realpolitik, but to Squid Game (the Netflix hit where contestants play lethal games for a huge cash prize)," economist Volodymyr Landa told the Kyiv Independent.
"It will have consequences not only for involved countries, but also for other countries that may start wars for resources in the near future."
Another minerals deal?
Washington could prepare another mineral deal with Moscow, like the one it signed with Ukraine in May, a source close to the matter told the Telegraph. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who coordinated the deal with Ukraine, is reportedly one of the figures behind the proposals.
Moscow occupies some 40% of Ukraine’s metal resources, including two of Ukraine’s four lithium deposits. Russia is already plundering resources from the occupied territories of Ukraine, particularly iron ore, which it exports via the Kerch Bridge connecting occupied Crimea to Russia.
Kyiv has previously expressed doubt the U.S. would join Russia in a scheme to exploit resources in Ukraine’s occupied territories.
It would violate international law and require Washington to recognize the occupied territories as part of Russia, which no other country has done, Taras Kachka, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister for European and Euro-Atlantic integration, told the Kyiv Independent in an interview published in July.
"This would not be favorable for America’s reputation," Gennadiy Chyzhykov, president of the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, told the Kyiv Independent.
He believes that Trump could be repeating his minerals deal playbook, where he first proposed to Kyiv a widely criticized "colonial" style agreement before negotiating down to a more mutually beneficial joint investment fund. He could be gauging where Ukraine and the international community's middle ground is by starting off with an “absurd” proposition, said Chyzhykov.
Arctic dreams
Washington could more realistically offer up its Alaskan resources to Moscow. The proposal includes the 3-mile Bering Strait that separates Russia and the U.S., which is thought to hold vast quantities of undiscovered oil and gas reserves and would bolster Russia’s presence in the Arctic.
"The Arctic is an area of common interest (between the U.S. and Russia). They could sign projects or review former development projects in the Arctic," George Popov, an investment analyst at Ukrainian firm BrightOne Capital, told the Kyiv Independent.
Popov pointed to a previous deal between America’s energy giant ExxonMobil and Russia’s Rosneft in 2011 to drill for hydrocarbons in the Arctic. The plan was scratched in 2018 due to Western sanctions on Moscow.
Following the Russia-U.S. summit in Saudi Arabia in February, Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s Direct Investment Fund, said that the two sides had discussed cooperating on energy projects in the Arctic, although he did not provide details.
Russia makes up 53% of the Arctic coastline, but it lacks the resources to develop the region, while Western sanctions have hindered its lucrative Arctic oil extraction.
Trump has a keen eye on the region too, particularly as China develops its own Arctic strategy, proposing to purchase Greenland for America’s "national security." The Arctic's economic potential has set the stage for it to become a potential conflict area in the future, and Trump could be looking to normalize relations with Russia to curtail Beijing.
"If Trump wants to share Alaska resources with Putin, that may be a better option for Ukraine than Ukrainian resources in the Russian-occupied territories," said Landa.
"But it is still dangerous as Russia is rewarded for its aggression."
