As Russia tests NATO, calls to 'close Ukraine's skies' have returned — here's what that means
Eurofighter jets from the United Kingdom fly over the North Sea on April 2, 2025. (Sem van der Wal / ANP / AFP via Getty Images)
Calls to "close the skies" over Ukraine — the rallying cry of pro-Ukraine demonstrations in early 2022 — are resurfacing after a wave of Russian airspace violations against NATO members.
These incursions have put European countries on edge and raised questions about the alliance’s ability to counter Russian drones and aircraft. Within days, NATO launched the Eastern Sentry mission, and talk of closing the skies over Ukraine returned to the agenda.
"NATO is a defensive bloc, so any steps it takes will only come as a reaction to moves made by Russia. What really matters is how member states choose to respond," aviation expert and analyst Kostiantyn Kryvolap, told the Kyiv Independent.
Former U.S. envoy for Ukraine Kurt Volker said in a recent interview that Russian provocations could push NATO to reconsider the idea of "closing the skies" after it refused to do so in 2022, citing fears of escalating the war beyond Ukraine's border.
Volker said NATO members may become more open to the idea of protecting Ukraine’s airspace if Moscow continues drone and military aircraft provocations like those seen recently in Estonia, Poland, and Romania.
What does closing the skies actually mean?
In the context of Ukraine, closing the skies would mean a NATO-enforced no-fly zone over part or, all of Ukraine.
Any Russian aircraft, drones, or missiles entering this zone would be a legitimate target for NATO forces to intercept and/or down even before they enter NATO airspace.
Because Russia failed to establish air superiority in Ukraine from the very start of the full-scale invasion, its aircraft do not enter Ukrainian airspace for fear of being shot down.
Instead, Russia's Air Force launches missiles and bombs against Ukrainian cities from the safety of their own airspace, out of reach of Ukraine's air defense systems.
Since 2022, Ukraine's air defenses have been significantly bolstered with Western-supplied systems, including Patriots, IRIS-T, SAMP/T, and NASAMS to defend against missiles, while German-made Gepards and Skynex guns target drones.
Defense analyst Anatolii Khrapchynskyi told the Kyiv Independent that these deliveries have helped reduce the impact of Russian strikes, but the systems remain scattered and are not present in large enough numbers to fully protect the entire country.
"The real challenge is that while the systems exist, there is no integrated architecture — no multi-level ‘wall of drones and missiles’ that functions as a single living organism," he said.
A no-fly zone would allow the full might of NATO countries' air defenses to bolster what is already in Ukraine.
Crucially, even a partial no-fly zone over Western Ukraine would have a dramatic effect.
"This would free Ukrainian assets for the frontline, strengthening the defense of major cities such as Kharkiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, and Kryvyi Rih, and limiting Russia’s reliance on glide bombs against Ukrainian troops," Victoria Vdovychenko, joint programme leader of the Future of Ukraine initiative at Cambridge University, told the Kyiv Independent.
It would also have the added benefit of providing a haven in the west of the country for Ukraine's defense industry, the factories and facilities of which are frequent targets of Russian attacks — an arrangement that would have multiple benefits.
"They could protect our skies, and we could share what we’ve learned through years of war," Kryvolap said.
What's needed to make it work?
The two main things are political will, and the military assets required to set it up.
While the political will was lacking in 2022, Russia's recent violations of NATO airspace with drones and aircraft have significantly changed the calculus for NATO.
European diplomats warned Russian officials this week that NATO is prepared to respond to further airspace violations with force, including by shooting down Russian planes, Bloomberg reported Sept. 25.
"The psychological barrier to authorizing force has largely been broken, and readiness for decisive action is higher than before,” Vdovychenko said.
But so far this still only applies to NATO airspace, though Warsaw is moving to amend its law on overseas military deployments to allow its forces to shoot down Russian drones over Ukraine without prior NATO or EU approval.
Vdovychenko said the easiest way to protect Ukraine's skies would be to extend the European Sky Shield Initiative, a project to create an integrated European air defense network first established in 2022.
An extension dubbed European Sky Shield for Ukraine was proposed in March of this year.
According to the plan, developed by former British Air Force planners in cooperation with Ukraine's Armed Forces, the protection zone would cover Ukraine's three operational nuclear power plants, as well as the cities of Odesa and Lviv in Ukraine's south and west.
“It would involve partners taking an active role in policing Ukrainian airspace, particularly across its western and central regions, to shield against Russian missile and air strikes,” Vdovychenko said, referring to her policy paper Winning the Future.
In that paper, she argues such a safe zone would not only restore stability and enable economic recovery, but also allow Ukraine’s Air Force to focus on defending the eastern front.
Building what she calls an Integrated Air and Missile Protection Zone would require around 120 modern fighter jets, backed by early warning planes, tankers, and robust intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) and cyber protection.
With about 1,000 combat-ready fighters across the EU and UK, she noted that dedicating even 10 percent of this fleet "would represent a modest but decisive contribution to Europe’s long-term security."
Experts argue that another option is the creation of bilateral or regional coalitions. Vdovychenko points to a potential Polish–Ukrainian framework as a starting point that could expand into a wider coalition.
"Such moves would send a strong signal that European allies are willing to act individually and collectively, without waiting for Articles 4 or 5 of the NATO Washington Treaty," she said.
Vdovychenko said such a coalition could draw on aircraft and crews from the UK, France, Sweden, and the Netherlands, use airfields and infrastructure in Poland and Romania, and tap ISR support from the Baltics, with political backing from Belgium. Financing, she added, could come from frozen Russian assets.
"Structured as a five-year mission, the coalition could give Ukraine time to build the capacity to protect its skies independently," Vdovychenko said.
From a military perspective, Kryvolap said such a coalition could look like a layered defense along NATO’s eastern flank.
"These countries could create their own military alliance to secure the eastern corridor. They could intercept targets once they cross into Ukraine, staying clear of Russian skies," he said.
