The following op-ed is based on a broader report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), published on Feb. 11, 2025. Some peace deals lead to peace; others lead to more war. The Minsk II deal, aimed at ending Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine in 2014, instead laid the groundwork for Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. The United States must learn from the Minsk deal or risk a direct Russia-NATO conflict that puts American lives at risk. Minsk II was a weak deal. It demanded nothing o

Editor’s Note: This is an analysis by Nataliya Bugayova, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Frederick W. Kagan for the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). This analysis was originally published by the ISW on Oct. 1, 2023, and has been republished by the Kyiv Independent with permission. Russian President Vladimir Putin didn’t invade Ukraine in 2022 because he feared NATO. He invaded because he believed that NATO was weak, that his efforts to regain control of Ukraine by other means had failed, and that

Editor’s Note: This is an analysis by Nataliya Bugayova, a non-resident Russia Fellow, at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a U.S.-based defense and foreign affairs think tank. This analysis was originally published by the ISW on April 27, 2023, and has been republished by the Kyiv Independent with permission. The opinions expressed in the op-ed section are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the views of the Kyiv Independent. Key Takeaways: * The policy debate about th

Editor’s Note: This is an analysis by Nataliya Bugayova, a Russia Research Fellow at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a U.S.-based defense and foreign affairs think tank. This piece was originally published by the ISW on Dec. 20, 2022. The Kyiv Independent has republished the analysis with permission. The opinions expressed in the op-ed section are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the views of the Kyiv Independent. US policy should recognize that the Kremlin’s intent

Editor’s Note: This is an analysis by Nataliya Bugayova, a Russia Research Fellow at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a U.S.-based defense and foreign affairs think tank. This piece was originally published by the ISW on Oct. 18, 2022. The Kyiv Independent has republished the analysis with permission. The opinions expressed in the op-ed section are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the views of the Kyiv Independent. Russian President Vladimir Putin is consolidating his