EU remains mute on secondary tariffs, eyes Trump’s next move
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets with U.S. President Donald Trump at Trump Turnberry golf club on July 27, 2025 in Turnberry, Scotland. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
War
BRUSSELS, Belgium — The European Union said it was preparing the next sanctions package on Moscow ahead of looming US-Russia peace talks.
The last-minute virtual talks came just ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s Alaska meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Aug. 15, which had spooked Kyiv’s Western allies as to what concessions Washington would be willing to make.
"We will work on a 19th package of sanctions," EU’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas said on Aug. 11, after an extraordinary meeting of European foreign ministers.
"More military support for Ukraine and more support for Ukraine's budgetary needs and accession process to join the EU” are also part of the consensus, Kallas said.
So far, however, the EU has been unable to reach a consensus on a Russian gas ban, and nuclear energy, fertilisers, and steel, due to the opposition from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. Following the talks, the country’s Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto issued a warning towards Brussels that Budapest would “do everything to prevent efforts to block or sabotage” the Alaska talks.
While big-ticket items seem unlikely, EU officials, however, privately acknowledge that there is a lot of room for the EU’s next sanctions package to move against third countries aiding Russia’s war, including India and China, which would help them align with Washington’s previous stance.
Will Europe match?
Last week, Trump threatened steep new tariffs on India over its continued purchases of Russian oil. Brussels faced mounting pressure to clamp down on sanctions circumvention — or risk being forced by Washington’s more aggressive approach.
Trump vowed on Aug. 6 to impose “a lot more” secondary sanctions on countries enabling Russian trade, announcing that a 25% tariff on India is set to take effect in 21 days.
The move has been acknowledged in European capitals, which are grappling with how far to go in closing loopholes in their own sanctions regime.
Privately, EU officials acknowledge that Trump’s warnings are being taken seriously. One EU diplomat told the Kyiv Independent that while the bloc is not formally aligning itself with Trump’s strategy, “there is growing recognition that we may be forced to step up ourselves if the U.S. starts sanctioning Indian entities or shipping companies.”
In late July, the EU also imposed sanctions on one of India’s two major private oil refiners, Nayara, which is majority Russian-owned, and banned the import of refined petroleum derived from Russian crude processed by Indian refineries.
“I’m rather sceptical that the EU would match the U.S. in taking a hard line on trade with external partners,” said Lesia Ogryzko, visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) and head of the Ukrainian think tank Sahaidachnyi Security Center, told the Kyiv Independent.
She noted that European governments are likely to maintain a cautious balancing act — supporting the U.S. position while also safeguarding their own economic priorities, as they have done throughout the war.
According to Ogryzko, Brussels has managed to maintain good relations with Washington partly through concessions in other areas.
“Through agreements like the bilateral EU-U.S. tariff pact and European procurement of U.S. weaponry for Ukraine, the EU has managed to keep Washington close — they may use these moves as justification for not replicating potential U.S. sanctions on third countries,” she said.
“Whether the EU becomes a direct target of sanctions will likely depend on how successful the U.S. is in persuading India to reduce its dependency on Russian energy.”
Ian Lesser, head of the German Marshall Fund’s (GMF) Brussels office, told the Kyiv Independent that “there is an opportunity which fits well with European interest and policy to demonstrate to Washington that the EU is capable of being a very helpful and serious actor when it comes to the economic containment of Russia.”
“Whatever comes next, I suspect Washington is gonna look to Europe to pay the bill,” Lesser said.
Could Europe end up in Trump’s crosshairs?
Despite 18 EU sanctions packages and repeated vows to end reliance on Kremlin-linked hydrocarbons, Russian oil, gas, and LNG still flow into the European economy — partly due to exemptions for Hungary and Slovakia — raising uncomfortable questions about whether the EU itself could come under Washington’s scrutiny.
Some analysts have speculated that Trump could threaten measures against European companies that continue to import Russian energy or facilitate circumvention, if he follows through with his current course.
“I think it could absolutely come into the equation,” Lesser said. “And, of course, it relates to the Trump administration's long-standing interest in selling more American energy to Europe.”
“Whether the EU becomes a direct target of sanctions will likely depend on how successful the U.S. is in persuading India to reduce its dependency on Russian energy,” Ogryzko said, adding that Trump’s strategy toward India should be seen as part of a broader negotiating tactic.
Trump’s threats and tariffs are seen as bargaining measures aimed at securing a trade deal with New Delhi that is favourable to Washington.
“So far, the U.S. has chosen to pressure India primarily because of the lack of progress in bilateral tariff talks — unlike with the EU or China, where negotiations are either successful or more promising — India’s position hasn’t shifted much,” Ogryzko said.
“That’s why the Trump team has linked India’s Russian energy imports to the broader Russia-Ukraine peace agenda, using it as a strategic lever on Moscow,” she said.
At this stage, Europe was unlikely to face sanctions unless it obstructed broader U.S. efforts related to Russia and Ukraine, she added.
EU foreign ministers to weigh next steps
EU foreign affairs ministers are expected to discuss sanctions enforcement together with further support for Ukraine at their informal gathering in Copenhagen in late August. While no major announcements are anticipated for the talks, EU diplomats say the groundwork may be laid for more concrete measures to follow in September.
At least three areas could see tangible progress: tightening controls on Russia’s shadow fleet, expanding sanctions on the Russian banking sector, and boosting coordination under the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) initiative to provide further military support for Ukraine.
On the shadow fleet, the bloc is expected to sharpen its focus. After the 18th sanctions package, 444 vessels — out of an estimated 1,000 — have been sanctioned, according to EU officials.
An EU official confirmed to the Kyiv Independent that work on the next, nineteenth sanctions package has not started yet but is expected within the next weeks.
