Russian disinformation exploits Polish drone incursion as public confidence wavers

Early on Sept. 10, Poland’s population awoke in a reality which few saw coming — the country’s Air Force, assisted by allied forces, was shooting down Russian drones that entered Polish territory en masse.

NATO was able to down four out of the 19 incoming drones, with others flying deep inside the country, landing as far as Gdansk, located 450 kilometers northwest of the border with Ukraine and Belarus.

While reactions were at first calm, with politicians and media waiting for official information communicated by the government, these soon gave way to an array of anxious questions on Russia’s possible motives, as well as on Poland’s capacity to deter future attacks.

Exclusive: Europe scrambles for Ukrainian interceptor drones after Russia’s attack on Poland

European countries are scrambling for Ukrainian anti-drone systems following the unprecedented violation of Polish airspace by Russian kamikaze drones on Sept. 10, officials and manufacturers have told the Kyiv Independent. “We were already previously discussing with the Ukrainian side investments in interceptor drones, but now we are even more interested in them,” a European military diplomat told the Kyiv Independent, on condition of anonymity. “We need to be prepared for war, so it is high

The Kyiv IndependentDominic Culverwell

Deeply divided leadership gives rare show of unity

The Polish government’s first official reactions focused on “continuous contact” between high-level authorities, as underlined on the morning of Sept. 10 by Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

Recently elected President Karol Nawrocki, backed by the conservative opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, repeated Tusk’s words on “continuous contact” with the Tusk-led liberal government following the attack.

Political commentators in Poland were quick to note that such reactions from the country’s top leadership were uncommon, as the high level of political polarization in Poland remains a key domestic issue and a potential weak point in future responses if Russian attacks were to continue.

The common reaction by political rivals in Poland was “better than expected,” said Piotr Skwieciński, a Polish political commentator and diplomat, in conversation with the Kyiv Independent. “It seems that all procedures worked, including in cooperation with NATO partners.”

Overall, authorities did demonstrate “total unity,” agreed Michał Kacewicz, editor-in-chief of Belsat.pl, who also spoke to the Kyiv Independent. However, follow-up decisions on Sept. 11 by the Polish prime minister and president showed that the country’s high-level authorities were already back to their usual fierce political competition, Kacewicz argued.

Anxious questions on defence capacities

While initial reactions to Russia’s surprise drone strikes were at first toned down, politicians and political commentators alike were quick to imagine what would happen if similar attacks occurred in the future, or worse, if these escalated.

“Poland is moving towards a situation of war,” claimed Marek Świerczyński, head of security and international affairs at Polityka Insight, an influential think tank linked to weekly Polityka magazine.

Marek Budzisz, an expert on Russia’s hybrid warfare, said that while Ukraine had in the past years developed cheap and efficient anti-drone systems, Poland had still not implemented such practical solutions.

As a result, Warsaw needed to rely on foreign assistance and mobilize fighter jets, shooting air-to-air missiles to neutralize a handful of Russian low-budget drones.

Skwieciński remarked that it was also unclear what happened to most of the drones that hovered above Poland — were they allowed to crash in safe areas, or did allied armed forces simply not manage to shoot them down?

The Polish diplomat pointed to the lack of cheap and efficient anti-drone technology in the country, concluding that “Poland had slept through” over three years of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, when such technologies were developed by Kyiv.

According to the Polish government, though, there was nothing odd about this situation. “This is the first time Poland has had to deal with a mass Russian drone strike,” said the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Paweł Wroński, in conversation with the Kyiv Independent.

“We will rely on Ukraine’s experience with Russian strikes, but we will also develop our own response capacities in due time.”

“This was an unprecedented, prestige operation,” Kacewicz argued in turn. “The (Polish) army could not think about costs in this kind of moment —Poland is not under constant (Russian) fire, so all available means can be used, including the best, most expensive technology available.”

Beyond anti-drone technology, several other practical issues remained.

Polish pundits, for instance, pointed to the fact that a state-run alert system, designed to send text messages about imminent risks to the population, failed to react on time, and alerted Poles about Russia’s attack only at about 9 a.m. local time, when the strikes were long over.

Earlier speculations also suggested that many Poles reportedly still did not know how to recognize an air raid alert siren signaling an upcoming enemy attack.

“This might sound a bit odd, but in a way, it’s good that this happened now,” Skwieciński told the Kyiv Independent. “This incident was a vaccine of sorts, which will lead to Poland improving its technologies and overall reactions” to possible future Russian attacks.

Russian bots drive Polish social media to blame Ukraine, media, Polish government

While in its initial reactions, the Polish government asked citizens to stay calm and avoid panic, social media were quick to find scapegoats for the incident.

An analysis of trends conducted by the European analytical collective Res Futura showed that 38% of online comments blamed Ukraine for the incident, with only 34% focusing on Russia. The remainder placed the blame on the Polish government, media and NATO.

Separate surveys conducted in parallel also showed that a large share of online activity was centered on inciting fears that the Polish government would not be capable of defending its own country.

While it is unclear to what extent these results were influenced by Russian bot activity, they paint a picture of a Polish online space highly influenced by Russian narratives.

“Fighting with these Russian bot factories is more or less like fighting with windmills,” Kacewicz argued. “Efforts can be made to promote narratives online, including with help from influencers, but this will not make Russian narratives disappear from the internet.”

Polish authorities, in turn, claimed that the situation is not critical. “We have recently changed our approach to countering Russian disinformation, for instance, we are already identifying concrete narratives pushed forward by Russian troll farms,” Wroński told the Kyiv Independent.

These claims were backed by an official statement of the Polish government on Sept. 10, which described what it saw as the main points of Russian propaganda in the aftermath of the attack — Poland was allegedly not prepared for what happened, while Ukraine would be attempting to drag Warsaw into its war with Russia.

On the ground, in the Polish town of Wyryki, 15 kilometers from the border with Belarus and Ukraine, the locals are now on edge, fearing that their country is on the brink of war.

“What I saw on TV or heard on the radio seemed far away. But what happened yesterday—it’s indescribable,” local resident Urszula Zapszaluk told the Kyiv Independent.

“I no longer feel safe.”