As Russia continues to intensify its onslaught on Ukraine more than three years into the full-scale invasion, Kyiv faces a new challenge – keeping its Western allies, namely the new U.S. administration, engaged in the struggle.
This became clear during the NATO summit in The Hague on June 24-25, where Ukraine was present but took a back seat to the allies' charm offensive aimed at U.S. President Donald Trump.
But some European leaders stress that this does not mean Ukraine is left to fend for itself.
Speaking to the Kyiv Independent on the first day of the summit, Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said this new reality means Europe must take up greater responsibility for Ukraine – and its own defense.
Tsahkna also dismissed the notion that Russian President Vladimir Putin is close to victory in Ukraine, believing the Western allies can "crack" Russia through additional sanctions and steadfast military assistance for Ukrainian defenders.
Rejecting the idea that the alliance is over as we know it because of Trump, Estonia's top diplomat declared the opposite: "NATO is stronger than ever before."
Editor's note: This interview was edited for clarity and length.
The Kyiv Independent: For months, NATO allies have said that the overarching goal of military support for Ukraine is to put it into the strongest possible negotiating position. Now, the negotiations have begun, but Russia continues to reject a ceasefire or to compromise on its maximalist demands. Has the strategy changed in light of this?
Margus Tsahkna: Europeans are doing more than before to support Ukraine on a military level. We are also going to adopt the 18th sanctions package at the EU level to put Russia under heavier pressure. But of course, it's obvious that the only person who is not interested in the ceasefire is Putin.
During these – I don't know how we can even call them negotiations – Putin has just asked for more and more, and is not giving anything. Of course, an exchange of prisoners of war is a good thing. But it doesn't mean that Putin wants to have any kind of ceasefire or peace.
What we need to do is very clear: We need to support Ukraine more heavily. We need to reach the 40 billion euros ($47 billion assistance) level from the European side this year, and I think that we are very close to that.
The Kyiv Independent: The allies have been supporting Ukraine for more than three years now, and it has not forced Russia to accept a ceasefire. What has to change on the side of Ukraine's international allies to actually force Russia to negotiate in good faith?
Margus Tsahkna: I do believe that we can actually crack Russia with more sanctions, by providing more investments and military support to Ukraine, because Ukraine is really strong.
This narrative that Putin wants to present that he is very close to victory and he has been very successful is fake news. Instead of a three-day special operation, Ukraine now has been fighting for more than three years against Russia.
And Russia has not had any kind of strategic breakthrough on the battlefield as well. Russia is terrorizing Ukrainians now by bombing civilians and killing them every night. It is very clear that Putin shows that he doesn't want to have any kind of ceasefire.
We need to focus on how we can support Ukraine so that Ukraine can keep fighting and not put pressure on it to accept unacceptable conditions.
But our duty is to support Ukraine, which is fighting. I think that it's clear to everybody in the world now.
The Kyiv Independent: Is Europe ready to move forward with these promised crippling sanctions, even if the U.S. seems unwilling to put additional economic pressure on Russia?
Margus Tsahkna: Yes, we just had the foreign council in Brussels yesterday, and we agreed on the main part of this 18th package of sanctions. Of course, lowering the oil price cap would be most efficient. I'm not sure whether this is coming or not.
A couple of governments, such as the Slovaks and Hungarians, are probably blocking this decision. Finding a consensus among 27 countries is really difficult.
But we must make these kinds of decisions as Europe, even if the U.S. is not following. I do hope that, finally, Senator (Lindsey) Graham's sanctions package will be adopted. It includes very direct sanctions against Russia's energy exports, banking, and so on, but also secondary sanctions for those governments that are still dealing with Russia.
We're talking about 500% tariffs on the gas and oil export dealings. But unfortunately, we don't have this decision yet. So we have a long way to go, but every day we need to do our part.
The Kyiv Independent: Does Europe have some kind of contingency plan if the U.S. disengages from peace efforts and the war in Ukraine altogether?
Margus Tsahkna: Yes, Europe must take these responsibilities. And to be honest, we have all the money in the world.
We have $240 billion in Russian frozen assets. And we are pushing heavily, as Estonia, to seize them and confiscate them to finance Ukraine. It's a lot of money for investments in the defense industry, as well as for buying Ukraine new stuff, like air defense systems. But we are not still there.
The Kyiv Independent: During the 2024 NATO summit in Washington, there was a pledge that Ukraine's path toward membership is irreversible. And we heard this pledge reiterated today by Secretary General Mark Rutte.
At the same time, the current U.S. administration has quite openly spoken out against Ukraine's accession. And it seems that the invitation for Ukraine is not even on the agenda of this year's summit. How would you explain to Ukraine that this pledge of irreversibility is not simply political convenience or rhetoric?
Margus Tsahkna: It is not rhetoric. But it's true that the U.S. is against the invitation now.
Estonia's and many others' position is that we see full NATO membership as the only working security guarantee for Ukraine and our region.
This is the most efficient, the most pragmatic decision. It may be impossible right now, but in the future, it will happen. I'm sure about that.
But now we have a hot war situation there. We need to focus on how we can support Ukraine so that Ukraine can keep fighting and not put pressure on it to accept unacceptable conditions. We're talking about sovereignty and territorial integrity. We're talking about the principles of independence.
The Kyiv Independent: Today, there was a massive Russian attack on Dnipro. A day ago, there was another deadly attack on Kyiv. Russia has also launched a new offensive in Ukraine's east. On the other hand, a new conflict is also escalating in the Middle East. Should Ukraine be worried that it will lose the allies' attention when it needs it the most?
Margus Tsahkna: There is always a concern that if a new war opens somewhere in the Middle East, attention will go there. But I can assure you that Europe is taking very seriously its support for Ukraine because there has been a huge change of mentality here.
Everybody understands that an attack against Ukraine is an attack against us as well. Ukraine belongs to Europe.
Europe has been like an old, lazy cat who was just waiting for something bad to happen, and the U.S. would come and solve the problems.
I'm sure that we will continue to support Ukraine, and there won't be any kind of loss of attention. Of course, if you watch the media, if you see politicians commenting on some topics, the number one topic is the war between Iran and Israel. But we need to concentrate our attention on Ukraine.
The Kyiv Independent: Are you worried that if NATO doesn't act decisively and strongly enough to stop Russian aggression in Ukraine, Russia might be eventually tempted to launch aggression elsewhere, for example, Estonia?
Margus Tsahkna: Absolutely. This has been our story since 2014, or even before, when Russia invaded Georgia in 2008. And we said very clearly that Russia won't stop.
And to be honest, Putin cannot stop. Putin is a warlord. And for him, this fight is already existential. He just cannot stop the war.
And that's why we need to support Ukraine. Ukraine is fighting not only for itself, but also for us, but also instead of us. Most leaders in Europe understand this.
To be honest, Putin revealed his plan already in 2008 at the Munich Security Conference. It was about the restoration of the Soviet empire – and he's really committed to this plan.
So the Baltics and the Nordics understand this. Maybe some others don't believe it, but it's our job to convince them.
The Kyiv Independent: As a country on Russia's borders, how do you view the signals from the U.S. that they are shifting their focus away from Europe and their plans to decrease military presence on NATO's eastern flank?
Margus Tsahkna: Let's see what the review of the plans will be. Because the U.S. understands as well that the troops in Poland and the Baltic states are keeping and securing the peace.
But President Trump has said very clearly that he will be committed to NATO. But of course, I totally agree with President Trump – and also previous U.S. presidents – that Europe must pay more, Europe must take more responsibility for its own defense.
And this burden-sharing that has been here for the last 20 years is not fair.
Europe has been like an old, lazy cat who was just waiting for something bad to happen, and the U.S. would come and solve the problems.
No, the U.S. may not come to solve the problems if we are not committed. So this is exactly what you see at this NATO summit.
The Kyiv Independent: There have been many voices after President Trump took office and after Vice President JD Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference that NATO, as we know it, is gone. Do you agree with that?
Margus Tsahkna: No, NATO is stronger than ever before. We have Finland and Sweden, new members within our region, in NATO. We see that all the member states are investing more heavily (in defense).
But I also see this change on a political level. In Germany, a new government has declared very straightforwardly that it will create the strongest army in Europe. They have plans and money for that, so I think NATO is actually stronger than it was five years ago.
Note from the author:
Hi, this is Martin Fornusek. I hope you enjoyed this interview.
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