The following is the Feb. 11, 2025 edition of our Ukraine Business Roundup weekly newsletter. To get the biggest news in business and tech from Ukraine directly in your inbox, subscribe here.
Ukraine’s steel industry — one of its most critical sectors — just can’t seem to catch a break as of late. First a critical mine closes, then comes U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs on steel.
Last week, we published an article on what the loss of the Pokrovsk mine that produces coking coal — necessary to make steel — would mean for Ukraine.
The mine was the last remaining coking coal site in Ukrainian-controlled territory. The country’s steel producers will now have to increase imports of the fuel, racking up transport costs, business reporter Dominic Culverwell writes.
Importing more coking coal will hinder the global competitiveness of Ukrainian steel, which has already taken a pounding since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
Some analysts are unsure if Ukrainian producers can afford to cover the needed imports.
“To produce the 2024 volume of steel — 7.5 million metric tons — we would need (to import) 1.9 million tons of coal. We have doubts whether it would be possible to import such quantities and definitely it would further increase the costs of our steel producers,” Oleksandr Kalenkov, the head of Ukraine's steelmakers' association, told the Kyiv Independent.
And then came Trump’s executive order on Feb. 10 imposing a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports, with no exceptions.
Economy Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko wrote on Facebook that Ukraine’s metallurgical products make up 57.9% of Ukraine's exports to the U.S., or in dollar amounts, $503 million out of $869 million. It’s unclear what time frame those figures represent.
True — the share of Ukrainian products in U.S. steel products is minimal and won’t have a significant impact on U.S. producers. But it’s still another blow to the country’s largest exports of metallurgical companies — ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih and Interpipe — already hurting due to the war.
"In recent years, we have made every effort to ensure that Ukrainian steel remains outside the 25% tariff limit in the U.S.," Svyrydenko said, implying that these efforts have been unsuccessful.
The minister added that she and her colleagues are “working actively with partners to find an optimal solution by March 12,” when the tariffs come into effect.
Shifting deal
In more Trump–Ukraine-related news, the U.S. president came out on Feb. 9 claiming that Kyiv had “essentially agreed” to a $500-billion deal for Ukraine’s rare earth minerals.
Trump and his team had already announced it was looking to exchange U.S. support for Ukraine’s critical minerals, which President Volodymyr Zelensky’s administration appeared to be open to, but two things appear to be new here.
First, the size of the deal, and second, that any deal wouldn’t be in exchange for future support, but compensation for U.S. aid already provided to Ukraine. It’s unclear yet if the shift in rhetoric changes Ukraine’s willingness to enter into such an agreement.
We’re likely to find out more in the coming days — Bloomberg reported on Feb. 11 that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will visit Ukraine this week to discuss a potential deal between Kyiv and Washington on critical minerals.
Gas woes
Russia launched a combined missile and drone attack at Ukraine overnight on Feb. 11, primarily targeting Poltava Oblast and damaging Naftogaz production facilities in the region, the company said.
Just last week, Reuters reported that Ukraine would maintain a high level of gas imports of 16.3 million cubic meters on Feb. 9 after the country began sharply increasing imports following a series of Russian attacks on its gas facilities.
Earlier in the week, Ukraine's Energy Ministry Herman Halushchenko said Russian strikes had severely impacted Ukraine's domestic gas production capacity, and that the country would need to import an estimated 1 billion cubic meters of gas by the end of the year.
Ukraine’s daily gas consumption was about 110 million cubic meters last month, Serhiy Makogon, the former head of the country’s transit operator, told Reuters.
The year of Kyivstar
Ukraine’s anti-trust regulator approved Kyivstar’s acquisition of taxi service Uklon, paving the way for its purchase, Kyivstar CEO Oleksandr Komarov announced at an American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine event on Feb. 6.
That’s big news on its own. Kyivstar is Ukraine’s leading mobile operator — Uklon, the country’s most popular ride-hailing service. The deal is reportedly valued at $40-60 million.
What’s more interesting here is everything going on with Kyivstar as of late. At the start of the full-scale invasion, it was at risk of nationalization over its parent company Veon’s Russian shareholders.
But in the last couple of months, Kyivstar announced a deal with Elon Musk’s Starlink to provide direct satellite-to-cell service. Last month, news broke that Kyivstar would be the first company to be listed on Nasdaq — which Komarov said would likely happen in Q3 — and now, the Uklon purchase.
What does it all mean? As one colleague noted, the Nasdaq listing plans might be a way for Kyivstar to get away from its former Russian ties. Given French billionaire Xavier Niel’s purchase of the third-largest mobile operator Lifecell last year, I’d say developing telecoms — which involves a country’s critical infrastructure — is a prime target for post-war investment in Ukraine.
Europe stepping in
The European Investment Bank announced on Feb. 10 that it had signed agreements to mobilize close to 1 billion euros ($1.03 billion) in investments into Ukraine’s public and private sectors — a welcome move as the U.S. cuts funding abroad.
Nadia Calvino, the EIB's president, said at a press briefing that she had discussed Ukraine’s urgent funding needs with Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal to see where the bank could fill the gaps if international partners withdraw their support.
"We discussed the priority areas where the EIB could step up its support — for example, in the areas of border management, transport, energy, and municipalities," Calvino said in Kyiv during her first visit to the country since taking up office as head of the EIB a year ago.
The investment announced on Feb. 10 includes 420 million euros ($433 million) in Ukraine’s public sector to help restore critical infrastructure such as energy, heating, water supply, hospitals, schools, and social housing.
On the private sector side, the bank has signed an agreement to mobilize close to 500 million euros ($515 million) in financing for small and medium-sized businesses throughout the whole country, including in front-line regions, Calvino said.
Read more here.
What else is happening
Ukraine's stocks hit pre-war levels on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, Polish media reports
WIG Ukraine, Ukrainian companies' stock price index on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE), rose by almost 25% in a few days, reaching pre-war levels, Polish media outlet Puls Biznesu reported. Investors expect to see the recovery of Ukraine-controlled territories and negotiations on the country's accession to the EU to follow, creating opportunities for Ukrainian and Polish companies listed on the WSE, Jakub Szkopek, an analyst at investment company Erste Securities told Puls Biznesu.
Parliament approves controversial purchase of Russian nuclear reactors from Bulgaria
Ukraine's parliament voted in favor of buying two Russian-made reactors from Bulgaria for the Khmelnytskyi Nuclear Power Plant, lawmaker Yaroslav Zhelezniak said on Feb. 11. President Volodymyr Zelensky urged the lawmakers last week to approve the project, calling it a "key to energy independence." Some lawmakers and anti-corruption activists have criticized the deal, arguing that the reactors are obsolete and expensive. The parliament has long struggled to pass the law, prompting Bulgaria to extend the deadline for concluding the deal until March.
French trade chief says Paris involved in rare earths research in Ukraine, adds US not a competitor
In an interview with the Kyiv Independent, France’s trade chief Laurent Saint-Martin said that France has been working with Ukraine on rare mineral exploitation for a long time, with French experts from organizations like BRGM and the inter-ministerial Direction for Rare Mineral Supply. “France remains fully involved in this sector, and we continue discussions with Ukrainian authorities,” Saint-Martin said.
Euroclear to send 2-billion-euro tranche of Russian assets profits for Kyiv
The European Union will receive a second tranche of 2 billion euros ($2.05 billion) from profits generated by frozen Russian Central Bank assets that are meant for Ukraine and its war effort. The clearing house said in a statement on Feb. 5 that the second payment is expected to be made in March and should amount to approximately 2 billion euros.
DVL Group, owner of Ukraine’s third-largest mobile operator Lifecell, plans to cut 15% of IT staff following merger
Ukraine's newly formed telecommunications company DVL Group is planning to cut 15% of its IT department due to business consolidation and optimization, the company told Economichna Pravda on Feb. 4. The process is set to be completed in 2025. French billionaire Xavier Niel bought and merged fixed operator Data Group Volia and Lifecell — Ukraine’s third-largest mobile operator — last year in a deal worth more than $500 million.
