Over the course of a tumultuous few weeks of talks, U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed his frustration with Kyiv. On March 7, Trump declared that he finds it "more difficult, frankly, to deal with Ukraine" than Russia.
Yet, after weeks of strong-arming Ukraine into submission, the Trump administration is yet to ask Russia for a single concession, and real negotiations with the Kremlin have yet to actually begin.
According to experts who spoke to the Kyiv Independent, some of them with direct experience of diplomatic dealings with Moscow, the reality of coming up against Russian President Vladimir Putin in talks may come as a shock to Trump.
"I think (Putin) probably sees Trump as a useful idiot who is helpful in promoting his agenda," Ryhor Nizhnikau, a Russia expert at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, told the Kyiv Independent.
Nizhnikau expects the Kremlin to reject the proposed ceasefire and come back with counter-proposals in an attempt to draw out the negotiating process, putting forward what he describes as "a lot of dangerous ideas."
Russia’s peace talks strategy
Kyiv and Washington on March 11 emerged from talks in Saudi Arabia in agreement over a ceasefire proposal, as well as the resumption of U.S. military aid and intelligence sharing.
After the negotiations with Washington, Ukraine announced that it was ready to accept a 30-day-long ceasefire if Russia also complied with it.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio later said the "ball is in (Russia's) court," adding if the Kremlin rejects the ceasefire proposal, "then we'll, unfortunately, know what the impediment is to peace here."
There had been no official response from the Kremlin, and even state TV propagandists had been largely silent on the matter.
"The Russians will definitely reject the ceasefire."
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov when asked by journalists about the proposal gave an evasive answer, saying they were "getting a little ahead of yourselves."
"The Russians will definitely reject the ceasefire," Nizhnikau said. "They cannot accept it because they say it's Washington's plan.”
Previous statements from Kremlin officials give an indication of what Russia is likely to demand.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Feb. 17 there could be "no thought of" territorial concessions, suggesting Russia may well demand Ukraine withdraw from areas of the four oblasts — Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk — it illegally annexed in 2022 despite not fully controlling.
Although Kyiv may be forced to agree to some sort of territorial concessions, it has previously rejected a full withdrawal from all four oblasts. Putin, however, said such a move would be a prerequisite for peace talks.
How Russia's latest territorial demands will be met by Washington remains to be seen but Ambassador Kurt Volker, who served as the U.S. special representative for Ukraine negotiations in 2017-2019 and U.S. ambassador to NATO in 2008-2009, said it's likely that Trump will have anything but an easy time.
"They're giving Putin everything."
"I think he has some kind of belief that Putin has limited and reasonable demands, which is not the case. Putin has unlimited demands," he said.
Volker believes that as negotiations continue and Trump's stated aim of a swift end to war moves further away, he will become "very disappointed in Putin" because he "keeps moving the goalposts and upping the ante."
Andrea Januta
‘No cards’
There is also a self-inflicted wound that hobbles the U.S. as it enters talks in earnest with Russia — the Trump administration has already thrown away some of its strongest cards.
The White House has ruled out NATO membership for Ukraine and insisted it makes territorial concessions, with the return to pre-2014 and even pre-2022 borders taken off the table.
"They're giving Putin everything," Michael McFaul, former U.S. Ambassador to Russia and professor of international studies at Stanford University, told the Kyiv Independent.
"It's just like diplomacy 101 — in any negotiation, you don't start by giving away all your strongest cards before the negotiation has started. And that's what it looks like the Trump team is doing."
McFaul said that Russia will have been emboldened by these concessions and will now simply demand more from the negotiating process.
"They just put it in their pocket, and they say, 'Well, what are you going to give us now?' That's their strategy. And they sit quietly, and they wait," he said.
"It's an incredibly bad negotiating strategy on behalf of the Trump team."
McFaul added that the original maximalist aims of Putin's full-scale invasion — the "demilitarization" of Ukraine and the removal of President Volodymyr Zelensky — are very much still on the table, in large part because the U.S. has been agreeing with Russia and its demands.
"It's an incredibly bad negotiating strategy on behalf of the Trump team," McFaul added.
What the U.S. could do, or would be prepared to do, in order to impose Ukraine's demands for a satisfactory peace upon a maximalist Russia remains to be seen, but Trump on March 12 appeared upbeat.
Following announcing that he might speak with Putin this week, Trump emphasized the need to engage with Russia, expressing hope that Putin would also agree and that negotiations could move forward.
"It takes two for tango, as I have already said, so I hope he (Putin) will also agree as well, and I really think that would be 75% of the way, the rest is getting it documented," he said.
"Ukraine has agreed to it, and hopefully Russia will agree to it… hopefully, we'll be able to wipe out a deal," he added.
But McFaul points out another potential impediment to the Trump team's success — experience.
"Lavrov's been at this for over two decades, he's pretty good at it. Rubio just started in this job a few weeks ago. And, you know, maybe he's just trying to figure out how to do this," he said.
Regardless of whether or not U.S. negotiators can step up, for Russian-born columnist and political commentator Sergei Parkhomenko, negotiations and any thoughts of a genuine peace process are wishful thinking.
"Putin needs this war," he told the Kyiv Independent. "He needs this war for its own sake more than he needs a victory in it, more than he needs Ukraine and more than he needs anything else.
"For him, war is a way of life, a method of governing the country, a way of maintaining himself in power. Therefore, real peace directly contradicts his political interests."
Natalia Yermak
