Last October, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine would strike Russia's Black Sea Fleet wherever it will be stationed — implying that could also include occupied parts of Georgia, where Russia has kept a garrison and is rumored to be constructing a naval base.
"We will reach them everywhere," the president said back then.
The remarks sent waves across Georgia, raising fears that the war could soon touch Georgia, which has gone a long way to distance itself from Ukraine and its fight.
Since then, Russia only sped up the construction of the base, which has the potential to drag the small South Caucasian country into a wider conflict.
As Russia's Black Sea Fleet, which has traditionally been stationed in occupied Crimea, has been hammered by Ukrainian attacks and largely forced to withdraw, Russia has sought a safe harbor further from Ukrainian drones and missiles.
Ochamchire, located over 700 kilometers southeast of the closest Ukrainian-controlled territory, has the potential to offer Moscow a new naval base largely out of reach from much of Ukraine's current long-range capabilities.
Details about the Ochamchire base, located in Abkhazia and occupied by Russia and its proxy forces since the 1990s, have been scant. Much of the analysis about the port has stemmed from satellite imagery and often contradictory statements from Abkhaz officials.
Nonetheless, the project — if completed to its full potential — could have significant implications for Ukraine, Russia, and Georgia.
Nate Ostiller
Details are few and far between
Talks on the creation of a Russian naval base in Abkhazia date back long before the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Modern day Abkhazia is internationally recognized as Georgian territory, but has been under the rule of Abkhaz and Russian proxy officials since the 1990s.
The first Russian warships reportedly were deployed to Ochamchire in 2009, shortly after the 2008 Russian invasion of Georgia and the subsequent cementing of the occupation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Russia officially claims that Abkhazia is an independent country, currently recognized by four other states Venezuela, Nicaragua, Syria, and Nauru. The occupied region shares a land border with Russia and is fully dependent politically and economically on Moscow.
The plans to move part of Russia's Black Sea Fleet to Abkhazia gathered steam in the fall of 2023.
Abkhaz proxy leader Aslan Bzhania told the Russian media outlet Izvestiya in October 2023 that Abkhazia had "signed an agreement (with Russia) and, in the near future, there will be a permanent base for the Russian Navy in the Ochamchire district." No specifics of the proposed plan nor a timeline were added.
Soon after, Vadym Skibitskyi, the deputy head of Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR), claimed that construction on the port had begun, saying that "Russians have carried out dredging work there" and that "they have reconstructed the port infrastructure in some parts in order to ensure the basing of warships there."
Despite the alarming nature of the proposition, the port, as viewed from satellite imagery, is still small and does not have the deepwater capacity to serve as a significant naval base — much less than the existing ports in Novorossiysk or in Sevastopol, occupied Crimea.
Nonetheless, subsequent investigations by Bellingcat and other outlets earlier in 2024 indicate that the construction had "accelerated."
While satellite imagery does reveal works on the port and the construction of new infrastructure from the previous year — such as new buildings and forest clearing — the actual dredging required to establish a deepwater naval base was not immediately clear.
Bellingcat acknowledged that "information has been scarce about Russia's plans for the naval base in Ochamchire. While satellite images show that there is an expansion of the base underway, it remains unclear what the purpose of the new structures will be."
Andrii Kharuk
Dragging Georgia into the war
Zelensky's claim that "there is now no safe base and no completely reliable logistical route in Crimea and on the occupied parts of the Black Sea and Azov coast" was viewed by some in Georgia that Ukrainian missiles and naval drones could soon be hitting Russian ships moored in sovereign, yet occupied, Georgian territory.
The possibility only added fuel to the rhetoric from the governing Russian-friendly Georgian Dream party, members of which have regularly claimed that the West is trying to push Georgia into the war.
The developments in Ochamchire come against the backdrop of Tbilisi's warming relations with Moscow and deteriorating ties with the West.
Under the ruling Georgian Dream party, Georgia has seen democratic backsliding, which has been accompanied by a growing push for rapprochement with Russia.
Georgian Dream officials, such as former Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili, nonetheless reacted critically to the proposed plans at Ochamchire, calling it an "illegal decision" that was "the result of (Russian) occupation."
Losing control over Abkhazia
In response to Zelensky's statement, Abkhazian leader Bzhania accused Ukraine of trying to "provoke a military situation in the Caucasus and unleash a new bloody war."
But a larger dynamic is unfolding between Russia and Abkhazia, which Moscow has controlled and financially supported since 2008.
Following a series of disagreements between Abkhazia and Russia, particularly the Abkhaz government's decision in the face of street protests to abandon a bill that would have legalized the sale of real estate to foreigners, relations between Sukhumi and Moscow have plunged to new lows.
Abkhaz Foreign Minister Sergei Shamba said earlier in September that Russia had decided to suspend aid to Abkhazia in response to its unwillingness to implement pro-Russian legislation (such as the apartment bill), which Shamba called a "serious blow" to their bilateral ties.
In an illustration of the often contradictory news about the port, Shamba said in August that there are "no plans" to establish a Russian naval base at Ochamchire, despite satellite imagery showing construction work and the occupied territory having no navy of its own.
At the same time, Abkhazia's financial dependency on Russia puts it in a difficult position.
"A lot will depend on the Abkhazian de facto government's continued ability to resist Moscow's overreaches – something they've done quite successfully over the past few years," said Maia Otarashvili, director of the Eurasia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.
"The Ochamchire port clearly offers a financial opportunity to the insolvent Bzhania government," Otarashvili told the Kyiv Independent.
Aside from the inconsistency coming from Abkhazia, the future of the Ochamchire base is also tied to political developments in Tbilisi.
"A lot will depend on the outcome of Georgia's October parliamentary election – if Georgian Dream is reelected with full majority, (Georgian oligarch and de facto leader Bidzina) Ivanishvili's designs on (a) complete monopoly over Georgia and its pro-Russian path will only intensify," said Otarashvili.
Introducing official
merch from the Kyiv Independent
