'It's ingenious and going to work' — Finland's Stubb bullish on EU's frozen Russian assets plan

HELSINKI, Finland — Finland's President Alexander Stubb says he believes Donald Trump is shifting from persuasion to pressure in his effort to end the war in Ukraine.

"(U.S.) President Trump is working, if not around the clock, at least every day, trying to end the war," Stubb told a group of European media outlets, including the Kyiv Independent, at his residence in Helsinki.

"Having seen that carrots rarely work with the Russians, he has moved to the stick stage — and now it's just a question of how big the stick is going to be," he said.

For that, Stubb, one of the few European leaders to have bonded with Trump on the golf course, added: "He has 14 clubs in his bag."

Those "clubs," the Finnish president said, range from secondary sanctions and higher tariffs to making more "creative use" of frozen Russian assets, as well as supplying Ukraine with U.S.-made weapons that can penetrate deep into Russian territory.

"You don't have to read 'The Art of the Deal' to understand the way President Trump negotiates," Stubb said. "It's unconventional, but quite results-oriented."

Should Russian President Vladimir Putin persist in targeting civilians, he added, "President Trump is justifiably going to react."

Patience and 'realistic optimism'

Stubb described himself as a "realistic optimist" about Ukraine's prospects, urging allies to remain patient.

"I have had the possibility to work with President Trump quite closely over the past few months," he said. "Perhaps optimism is sometimes an intuition, but I think the facts on the ground right now speak to the fact that we are going in a better direction."

He said his recent visit to Kyiv had left him with the impression that Ukraine was "probably in a better place than it has been at any time during this conflict."

Europe's response to recent Russian drone incursions had been "quite measured," he argued, pointing to calibrated reactions on land, sea, and air.

"We have a pretty good playbook of what should be said and done in any given situation (…) we haven't gone over the top, nor have we been under measure," Stubb said.

He stressed that support for Ukraine was not "a one-way street," noting that Ukraine now fields "the most experienced and modern army in Europe," able to teach its allies how best to counter drone warfare.

Asked by the Kyiv Independent whether he would sense any appetite for closing the sky at least over western Ukraine to prevent incursions into NATO territory and protect the defense industry production based in that part of the country, he was cautious: "If we get a ceasefire, then it's a different story. That's why I've been calling for a two-phase solution: first a ceasefire by air, sea, and land; then negotiations on a peace framework."

"And of course, the Americans have the best equipment to do that," he said.

For now, he warned, Russia was likely to target Ukraine's energy infrastructure ahead of winter.

'Ingenious' frozen assets plans

Stubb praised EU plans to mobilize Russian frozen assets as "ingenious."

A recent proposal, which has been gaining ground over the past few weeks, even among skeptical countries like Germany, would see the bloc borrow around 140 billion euros ($164 billion) on behalf of all EU member states, with each country sharing risk based on its gross national income (GNI) share.

Rather than a "blank check" to Kyiv, the scheme would frame the support as war compensation, he explained: effectively an interest-free loan, to be repaid only if Russia itself pays reparations.

"It is my understanding that the proposal is something to the effect that instead of giving a blank check to Ukraine, you frame it as war compensation," Stubb said. "Which basically means that you give the money out as an interest-free loan to Ukraine."

The plan will be discussed at an informal EU summit in Copenhagen on Oct. 1. Belgium has voiced concerns that the move could harm its financial credibility, but Stubb argued that collective guarantees would limit the risk.

Under the proposal, Kyiv would only need to repay the debt if Russia pays war damages to Kyiv, which the Finnish president indicated was unlikely.

EU diplomats in Brussels over the past week have been cautiously optimistic, but a key obstacle remains Belgium, where the majority of Russian frozen assets are held in its financial clearing-house Euroclear.

The Belgian government has voiced concerns that it could potentially harm the country's international financial credibility.

"It is not only Belgium that is held liable, because you're giving out a loan against the member states," Stubb said. "I think the idea is ingenious, and I think it's going to work."

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