The following is a chart based off of data originally published in the Kyiv-based Center of Economic Strategy's "Ukraine War Economy Tracker." The Kyiv Independent is republishing it with permission.
Consumer confidence falls due to power outages and increased mobilization
Source: Info Sapiens, Сenter for Economic Strategy • Consumer confidence indices. 0 - min, 200 - max, 100 - neutral opinions
Until 2022, Ukrainians' consumer sentiment was closely linked to their financial situation: when the economic situation deteriorated, consumer sentiment was depressed.
The outbreak of the full-scale invasion caused a paradoxical surge in optimism: while the financial situation of Ukrainians deteriorated significantly, the belief in a better future "after the victory" caused economic expectations to skyrocket.
Economic expectations remained quite high throughout 2022 and half of 2023. Even the Russian attacks on energy infrastructure in the winter of 2022, when Ukrainians became intimately familiar with the concept of massive emergency power outages, did not shake Ukrainians' confidence in a better future.
All this time, the financial situation of Ukrainians was gradually improving along with the economic recovery after the fall at the beginning of the invasion. The trends changed in the summer of 2023: the failed counteroffensive led to a deterioration in economic expectations, and in the fall of 2023 they were negative again.
It seems that the period of unjustified optimism is coming to an end: the gap between the assessment of the current situation and economic expectations is narrowing.
In June 2024, both indices fell sharply — likely due to persistent electricity shortages and increased mobilization — and consumer sentiment dropped to its lowest level since the war.
Maksym Samoiliuk
