Belgian PM raises stakes on Kyiv lifeline, renewing opposition to Russian frozen-assets reparations loan
Editor's note: This article has been updated to include additional details about Belgian Prime Minister Bart de Wever's letter to the European Commission president.
Belgian Prime Minister Bart de Wever expressed strong concern over a plan to lend frozen Russian assets to Ukraine in a letter sent to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
In the letter, sent on Nov. 27 and seen by the Kyiv Independent, de Wever labelled the EU's current "reparations loan" scheme as "fundamentally wrong," and argued that moving forward on the initiative could complicate an eventual peace deal.
Under the plan put forward by von der Leyen, approximately 140 billion euros ($162 billion) in immobilized Russian central bank reserves would be lent to Ukraine.
Pressure is at an all-time high to source new funding for Ukraine, whose finances will run dry in mid-2026. Kyiv needs 136 billion euros ($157 billion) in 2026–2027 in combined military and financial funding from foreign partners, according to EU estimates.
The European Commission and most EU member states favor a reparations loan scheme and aim to finalize an agreement at the European Council meeting on Dec. 18–19.
Some European countries are reluctant to pursue other options for financing Ukraine, such as raising joint debt, which would add pressure on already high debt piles.
But de Wever said that Belgium — whose support of the reparations loan is crucial — would not back the plan unless European countries give ironclad guarantees that his country will not be left solely responsible for any fallout from the scheme.
De Wever also suggested other ways of financing Ukraine, such as using the joint European budget.
European countries previously failed to agree on the plan at a leaders' meeting in October, after de Wever blocked the proposal.
The European Commission is expected to provide a legal basis for the plan this week, which was intended to allay Belgium's fears.
De Wever's letter was first reported by the Financial Times on Nov. 27.
Approximately $300 billion of Russian central bank foreign reserves were immobilized by sanctions in February 2022 after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Roughly two-thirds of those ($215 billion) are held at Euroclear, a financial institution based in Belgium.
De Wever's Worries
While the Belgian premier said that he was "cognizant of the need to find ways to continue financial support to Ukraine," the bulk of the letter laid out numerous concerns vis-à-vis the loan scheme.
In it, de Wever specified that Belgium had consulted with "specialized law firms," which assessed that the scheme could be perceived internationally as "a breach of the rule of law, sovereign immunity, and property rights."
But according to Bart Szewczyk, lawyer at multinational law firm Covington & Burling and adjunct professor at Sciences Po, "Belgium’s arguments are misplaced and have been rebutted multiple times long ago."
"Replacing the cash with the loan under the reparations loan scheme is neither seizure nor confiscation," he told the Kyiv Independent.
De Wever went on to outline potential risks from the plan, including Belgian obligations under a bilateral trade treaty with Russia, potential Russian retaliation against Euroclear and European firms, and risks to the global role of the euro.
De Wever's letter also referenced a separate letter to von der Leyen from Euroclear, the financial institution holding the bulk of Russia's frozen assets, which on Nov. 27 expressed similar arguments that a reparations loan would raise borrowing costs and discourage investment in Europe, according to the Financial Times.
Timothy Ash, fellow at Chatham House and strategist at RBC Bluebay asset management, told the Kyiv Independent that Euroclear and Belgium's arguments were "total bullshit," adding that alternative options like funding Ukraine through common borrowing would imply higher borrowing costs in Europe too.
"The bigger risk to the euro is if we don't fund Ukraine, which will be catastrophic for Europe because it will mean a huge increase in defense spending, borrowing, and budget deficits," he added.
According to Szewczyk, "the only reasonable point that Belgium makes is in the need for other EU member states to share in any minimal litigation or financial risk surrounding the loan." He added that Belgium faced few risks with respect to Russian retaliation or arbitration under the trade treaty.
Cash-strapped Kyiv
Ukraine is in urgent need of funds, facing a cliff-edge in foreign financing next year.
Kyiv spends all of its own tax revenues on the military — about $62.8 billion next year, according to the draft state budget for 2026 — making it reliant on financing abroad for everything else, including crucial state services such as pensions, schools, and hospitals.
Ukraine is resorting to a patchwork of measures to stretch its finances in 2026, including by using unspent funds from ministries in 2025, ad-hoc government borrowing, and potentially asking for loans already planned to be scheduled throughout 2026 to be brought forward earlier in the year.
Vladis Dombrovkis, EU economy commissioner, called on the U.K., Canada, Japan, and the U.S. to pursue frontloading the loan in an interview on Nov. 28 with Euractiv. That could potentially bring forward 14 billion euros to act as a bridge before Ukraine receives more funding from the EU.
The International Monetary Fund also reached an agreement with Ukraine on Nov. 26 for a new program worth $8.1 billion over 2026–2029. But that can only be approved if Ukraine receives a guarantee of financial commitments from partners.
Beyond Ukraine's immediate financial needs, the war-torn country will need over $500 billion for its recovery, according to the World Bank.
