Editor’s Note: This is an analysis by experts from the Center for Defense Strategies: Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Alina Frolova, Oleksiy Pavliuchyk, and Viktor Kevlyuk. It was originally published in Ukrainian by Ukrainska Pravda on Feb. 22. The Kyiv Independent is republishing it with permission. This analysis focuses on the possible consequences of Russia’s President Vladimir Putin’s decision on Feb. 21 to recognize the Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine’s Donbas as independent states. The analysis wa

Editor’s Note: This is an analysis by experts from the Center for Defense Strategies: Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Alina Frolova, Oleksiy Pavliuchyk, and Viktor Kevlyuk. It was originally published in Ukrainian by Ukrainska Pravda on Feb. 12. The Kyiv Independent has translated it and is republishing it with permission. On Feb. 11, reports from U.S. officials of a possible large-scale Russian offensive in the coming days added to the tense news cycle. The officials even named the date of a possible off

Editor's note: This is an analysis by the Center of Defense Strategies' experts Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Alina Frolova, Oleksiy Pavliuchyk. It was originally published in Ukrainian by Ukrainska Pravda. The Kyiv Independent has translated it and is republishing it with permission. Many politicians and observers report that a significant escalation of military aggression by Russia is highly probable. Various scenarios are mentioned, in particular the widely discussed scenario of a full-scale military