What the $105m US-Ukraine Patriot deal actually means
A Patriot rocket launcher of the Romanian army fires a PAC-2 ATM missile during a military drill at the Capu Midia shooting range in an unspecified location near the Black Sea on Nov. 15, 2023. (Daniel Mihailescu / AFP via Getty Images)
As Russian aerial attacks show no sign of slowing, Ukraine’s ability to not just maintain, but modernize its air defense systems like the U.S.-made Patriot, has become essential for long-term survival.
A new $105 million U.S. package aims to do just that — help Ukraine upgrade and sustain its most advanced air defense system in what promises to be a long and grinding war.
The U.S. Department of State greenlit the potential Foreign Military Sale (FMS) on Nov. 19, following a request from the Ukrainian government for various sustainment-related services and upgrades.
The package includes launcher modernization, spare parts, training, logistics, and support — everything needed to sustain and operate it effectively in the long run.
"As Russia continues its air terror targeting civilians and critical infrastructure, strengthening our air defense capabilities is a top priority," Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal wrote on X, announcing the possible deal.
While the deal is limited in scale compared to large-scale weapons transfers, defense experts say it reflects a long-term strategy to enhance Ukraine’s ability to maintain and expand its air defense system.
"At $105 million, this package is too small to drastically improve Ukraine’s missile defense capabilities in the short term," Justin Bronk, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told the Kyiv Independent.
However, Bronk noted that the upgrade of M901 launchers to the M903 standard contributes to technical improvements.
Older M901 launchers can only fire PAC-2 GEM-T and PAC-3 CRI interceptor missiles — capable, but limited in their effectiveness against advanced threats like ballistic missiles.
In contrast, the M903 configuration enables launchers to fire the PAC-3 MSE (Missile Segment Enhancement), the most modern and capable interceptor in the Patriot family, particularly effective against the latest ballistic threats.
"The PAC-2 GEM-T is good for long-range anti-aircraft shots, but is less capable against ballistic missiles. The PAC-3 CRI is similar, but slightly smaller and less effective than the newer PAC-3 MSE," Bronk explained.
And when defending against Russia's mass missile and drone attacks, the latest of which overnight on Nov. 19 killed at least 25 people and injured hundreds of others, this is literally a matter of life and death.
Russia has been upgrading its ballistic missiles with radar decoys and evasive maneuvers over the last year, making them potentially harder to intercept even by Patriot air defenses, Ukraine's Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat said on May 24.
"It complicates (the interception), but doesn’t make the interception impossible," he said at the time.
"I think our partners are already working to improve the system's capabilities."
This deal appears to be a part of the result of that work.
Ukraine already operates some M903 launchers, but this new package shows a broader effort to standardize and modernize the entire Patriot missile defense system.
"Over time, this will likely mean that significantly more of the Armed Forces of Ukraine’s Patriot launchers will be compatible with the newest, most capable interceptor missiles. These are also the easiest for partners to supply, as they are the main variant in production today," Bronk added.
