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Analysts forecast up to 52,000 daily Covid-19 cases in early February

January 28, 2022 7:23 pmby Alexander Query
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A patient infected with Covid-19 breathes through an oxygen mask at the sub-intensive care unit in Dnipro clinical hospital №8 on Nov. 3, 2021. (dniprorada.gov.ua)

Ukraine could register up to 52,000 daily Covid-19 cases in early February, reaching its peak of incidence, according to the latest report published by the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.

Experts claim that the number of new cases is now doubling every week, and given the experience of other countries, the peak incidence per day should be expected in one to three weeks.

The academy estimates that there will be on average 29,878 new daily cases from Jan. 26 to Feb. 1, and 39,241 new daily cases from Feb. 2 to Feb. 8. The range is forecasted at 20,596 to 52,651 cases per day.

Ukraine has registered 34,408 new cases of Covid-19 on Jan. 27. It is the highest-ever number detected in the country since the start of the pandemic in 2020. 

The previous highest number of daily cases, 32,393, was recorded in Ukraine just a day before, on Jan. 26

Although the infection rate has been growing for the last three weeks, the number of hospitalizations is twice lower compared to the outbreak in the spring of 2021. 

According to Ukraine’s Health Minister Viktor Lyashko, the low hospitalization rate is observed due to nationwide vaccination. Still, Ukraine’s vaccination level remains relatively low: Only 38% of the population are fully vaccinated.

The Health Ministry announced the beginning of a new Covid-19 wave on Jan. 19. The ministry expected this wave to peak in February.

The highly transmissible Covid-19 variant Omicron was first detected in Ukraine on Dec. 18. As of Jan. 24, the strain has reportedly spread in 17 out of the country’s 24 oblasts but hasn’t yet become the dominant variant in Ukraine, according to Lyashko.

Alexander Query
Author: Alexander Query

Alexander Query is a business reporter at the Kyiv Independent. He is the former business editor at the Kyiv Post. He worked as a TV correspondent and an anchorman at UATV in Ukraine, and received a BA in modern literature from La Sorbonne, in Paris.

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